Research for Planning

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February 1, 2005

The Marine Corps's manpower costs—about $9.4 billion—represent 60 percent of its annual budget. Before this study, there was no institutionalized and documented methodology for forecasting losses and no systematic attempt to improve existing techniques. Personnel charged with developing plans to meet Marine Corps endstrength requirements relied on information gleaned during overlap with their predecessors and sometimes developed their own methods, which were susceptible to errors. The study's authors revamped the process to make it more systematic and recommended ways to accurately forecast endstrength losses and gains.

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October 1, 2004
Capabilities-based planning is advertised as the new approach to planning in the Department of Defense. A simple definition of such planning would be that it should be threat-less and scenario-less. Unfortunately, the new defense planning system requires that the planning be tested in what are essentially "vertical" scenarios, i.e., spikes in time, and this leads to the invention of enemies and threats to fill the scenarios. The main drawback in this is that it is hard to apply such planning to the "horizontal" scenarios the United States now faces, especially the global war on terror, which is expected to last a long time.
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October 1, 1996
The end of the Cold War has led to a major reexamination of the requirements fir medical personnel and other resources necessary to care for Department of Defense (DoD) beneficiaries. Despite large numbers of peacetime beneficiaries, the primary need for medical resources remains the wartime mission. During the Cold War, the requirement for wartime medical providers was high and could easily justify large numbers of active duty personnel. Today's defense guidance is based on fighting two major regional contingencies (MRCs), and the required number of medical providers has fallen sharply. Determining the number and types of medical resources needed to treat casualties of future conflicts is an important and complicated issue. To help shed light on the process of determining wartime medical requirements, N-931 asked CNA to examine the methods and models that are currently in use or may be used in the near future. The current process is in flux. The models used today are being changed. The use of one model was discontinued recently when the Joint Staff changed to a new command-and-control system. The Joint Staff has proposed a replacement, but the new model is still being developed and there is some concern about its adequacy in determining service medical requirements. In this memorandum, we examine the current and proposed theater-level requirements models.
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May 1, 1996
The Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) and the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) held a workshop in Washington, DC, from December 4 to 6, 1995, to examine the prospects for U.S. - Korean naval relations in the year 2010. For purposes of analysis, the participants assumed the possibility of Korean unification over the next ten to 15 years. The purpose of the workshop was to investigate potential threats in the region in 2010, identify the naval missions these threats imply, identify non-threat-related missions, and project the capabilities required to perform those missions.
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April 1, 1996
In this briefing we examine issues for the U.S. Marine Corps to consider in organizing and conducting Military Support for Civil Authorities (MSCA) operations - or, more simply, domestic operations. This briefing is part of the documentation from a CNA study that examined USMC issues in conducting Humanitarian Assistance Operations (HAOs). The Commanding General, Marine Corps Combat Development Command, and the Commanding General, I Marine Expeditionary Force, requested that CNA conduct the study. We focused on how HAOs differ from traditional warfighting operations and on the implications of these differences for requirements in Marine Corps doctrine, organization, training, and equipment. The briefing does not cover all aspects of domestic operations, nor does it cover every role of Marine forces in these operations. With this background in mind, it focuses on some of the ways in which domestic operations differ from operations conducted outside the United States, and the implications of these differences for the Marine Corps.
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April 1, 1996
The Center for Naval Analyses conducted a study to identify and analyze alternative ways the Marine Corps might consider to improve its ability to conduct Humanitarian Assistance Operations (HAO). To achieve this objective we (1) examined how the military has conducted HAOs in the past; (2) identified alternative way the military can conduct these operations; and (3) assessed the relative costs of these alternatives in terms of changes in organizations, education and training, doctrine and documentation, and equipment and supplies. This paper addresses how the Marines and the military in general can improve their ability to plan an HAO. It is one of a series of papers on the U.S. Marine Corps and HAOs.
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January 1, 1996
COMSIXTHFLT received several requests from littoral nations for training and interaction in maritime law enforcement, maritime interception, search and rescue, fisheries protection, and other coastal patrol operations. In response, COMSIXTHFLT requested that a U.S. Coast Guard cutter deploy to the Mediterranean and Black Sea from 29 May through 28 August 1995. USCGC DALLAS (WHEC 716) subsequently visited seven nations: Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Tunisia, Slovenia, Italy, and Albania. COMSIXTHFLT requested that a CNA analyst be embarked on USCGC DALLAS to assess the cutter's regional engagement role vis-a-vis U.S. Navy units and to identify analytic issues regarding USCG-USN interpretability. This report examines USCGC DALLAS's operational role during battle-group operations and identifies a number of issues that affect USCG-USN interoperability.
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December 1, 1995
Over the past four years, the Base Realignment and Closure Commissions have recommended closing half of the Navy's public shipyards in response to the downsizing of the nation's defense establishment. Three of the communities directly affected by shipyard closing - Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Charleston, South Carolina, and Vallejo, California (which is the redevelopment authority for Mare Island Naval Shipyard) - were notified in 1993 or before, and each has responded differently. Individual responses and assessments of conversion success to date are subjects of this report. The Long Beach Naval Shipyard is on the recently approved 1995 base closure list and is just beginning the process of developing its reuse strategies. CNA was specifically asked to: examine the prospect of converting a Naval shipyard into a commercial shipyard; and analyze the social and economic challenges these communities might face under such a conversion effort.
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April 1, 1994
In December 1992, the U.S. Central Command formed Joint Task Force (JTF) Somalia to conduct military operations in southern Somalia. The purpose of the operation, designated Operation RESTORE HOPE, was to establish a secure environment for Humanitarian Relief Organizations (HROs) to provide famine relief services. From November 1992 through March 1993, six analysts from the Center for Naval Analyses provided analytic support to JTF Somalia. Five analysts were on-scene in Somalia at various times. At the request of the CJTF, the analysts studied planning, the execution of the JTF concept, logistics, the transition to the UN-led operation, and certain aspects of operations, including rules of engagement and interactions between the military and the HROs. Documentation of these analyses is contained in a series of research memoranda. This summary report draws together some of the results of the individual analyses and puts them in the context of the overall operation. Its scope is limited by the issues addressed by the on-scene representatives. Thus, neither our study nor this summary report purports to be a comprehensive compilation of the military operations conducted during RESTORE HOPE, or of the lessons that the military has learned from the operation. See also CRMs 93-96, 93-114, 93-148, 93-126, 93-120, and 93-140.
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March 1, 1994
The post-Cold War national security strategy engages U.S. power in all its form to shape a more secure world. Overseas presence--operating forces forward to influence what foreign governments think and do--is the most important and challenging of the tasks this strategy assigns the Armed Forces. This paper looks at the political and strategic case for presence and discusses some of its costs and risks. It draws conclusions about: (1) what presence means in our use of the forces we have now; and (2) what forces to buy for the future. It also suggests ways to make presence operations more efficient and issues deserving study in that regard.
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