Research for Pilots

The Navy trains pilots to fly a variety of aircraft. At present, all student pilots attend primary training in the fixed-wing T-34 training aircraft and are then assigned to specialized advanced training 'pipelines.' In this paper, we document the Navy's use of observed flight performance in primary to assign student pilots for advanced training. We examine the ability of the Navy to predict student pilot performance before primary begins and early in primary. First, we predict primary flight performance before flight training begins, using the data employed to screen candidates into flight training. Next, we predict primary performance using flight stage grades earned early in primary. We address two major policy issues: (1) how would pipeline selection be affected if the Navy had two separate primaries, one for helicopter training and another for fixed-wing training? and (2) how would pipeline selection be affected if helicopter pilots were selected early in primary training?

This research memorandum examines how the definition of the continuation rate for Naval officers is implemented using data from the Officer Master File. Continuation rates are measured for a cohort of officers defined by their designator and year group. Several conceptual and data problems arise because the simple definition of the continuation rate does not account for various inflows and outflows for specific cohorts. The effect of including or excluding various subgroups within a cohort is considered using pilots from year groups 73 through 78 for the period from 1980 through 1986.

Over the past several years, the Marine Corps has experienced an increasingly high rate of attrition among its pilots and flight officers. Based on a survey of all active duty and some recently separated pilots and flight officers, this study identifies the issues and attitudes that motivate the career decision. Recommendations are made for reducing attrition.