Research for PERSTEMPO

CNA has been analyzing the retention implications of the post-9/11 period. This annotated briefing summarizes our findings and some ways to mitigate adverse effects, should they occur. Data from Desert Shield/ Desert Storm (DS/DS) show that attrition dropped during the conflict, particularly for ships deployed to the region, and then spiked following DS/DS. A previous CNA statistical analysis indicates that reenlistment rates dropped for sailors who experienced extra-long deployments before the Navy formalized its PERSTEMPO limits in 1986. Anecdotally, long deployments before 1986 were more routine in nature and not necessarily morale-boosting. Based on this analysis, we estimate that sailors may require between $220 and $345 per month to offset the retention effects of long deployments if PERSTEMPO rules continue to be broken. To offset any retention repercussions, we recommended two pays: Sea Pay Plus and a restructuring of the High Deployment Per Diem (or ITEMPO pay). Sea Pay Plus would compensate sailors for extra-long deployments. Our recommended restructuring of ITEMPO would compensate sailors for extra-long deployments and excessive cumulative time away. We recommend that the Navy (1) use Sea Pay Plus should retention drop in the near term, and (2) push for a legislative revision of the ITEMPO pay.

CNA has studied the relationship between various dimensions of time at sea and retention over many years. In general, we have found that more time at sea produces lower retention, but the magnitude of the effects is more modest than many Navy officers expected. We have also found that higher pay (military relative to civilian) increases retention. Given the relative magnitudes of the sea duty and pay effects, we have concluded that modest increases in pay could be cost effective in offsetting the negative effects of increased sea duty. As the Navy has considered the implications of our past studies and has wrestled with difficult downsizing choices, three questions remained about the applicability of the results of our previous studies for Navy planning: (1) Does quality of life during turnarounds affect retention? (2) What is the cost to maintain retention if time at sea is increased? and (3) Are Navy Retention/Separation Surveys consistent with previous CNA analyses? This briefing addresses these questions. We start by summarizing our answers to the three questions. Explanations of how we reached the conclusions follow.