Research for Personnel Retention

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ALTERNATIVE MILITARY RETIREMENT SYSTEMS, THEIR EFFECTS ON ENLISTED RETENTION
January 1, 1981
The virtues and criticisms of the current military retirement system are described. Then an economic model is developed for analyzing the effects of different retirement systems on retention. The model also can be used to analyze other kinds of changes to the military compensation system. Here it is used to estimate the effects of three retirement plans on enlisted retention and force structure: (1) a two-tier plan that reduces annuities after 20 years of service, (2) a trust fund plan recommended by the President's Commission on Military Compensation that provides some benefits after 10 years but fewer after 20 years, and (3) a two-tier plan recommended by the Secretary of Defense that allows early withdrawal of prospective 20-year benefits after 10 years of service.
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FINAL REPORT OF THE PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT IN THE ALL VOLUNTEER FORCE STUDY
November 1, 1980
The Personnel Management in the All-Volunteer Force Study assesses the use of applicant screening, recruit assignment, and reenlistment bonuses to improve the retention of enlisted personnel.
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A New Look at Success Chances of Recruits Entering the Navy (SCREEN)
June 1, 1980
SCREEN is a table of chances of completing the first year of service used in qualifying applicants for enlistment. The chances are a function of educational level, mental group, age, and dependency status. Because SCREEN was based on regular Navy recruits in 1973, it was updated on recruits and extended to reservists and women who enlisted in 1977. The 1977 regular and reservist SCREENs are compared with one another and with the 1973 version. A women's SCREEN is evaluated in light of current recruiting policy. A streamlined vesion of the 1973 SCREEN is presented, along with a cost-benefit analysis of the qualifying score.
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RATING ASSIGNMENTS TO ENHANCE RETENTION
June 1, 1980
The first-term retention gain from exploiting rating-specified survival probabilities when assigning recruits to ratings is assessed. The reassignment of 28,000 recruits to 37 ratings under the same conditions faced in the original assignment is simulated. A sizeable gain in first-term retention rate is demonstrated.
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NONPARAMETRIC METHODS FOR ESTIMATING RECRUIT SURVIVAL WITH CROSS SECTIONAL DATA
January 1, 1980
A survey of nonparametric methods (methods which make no distributional assumptions about the data) for survival curve estimation is presented. This is provided as background to the discussion of the Cox regression model, which can be applied to cross-sectional data. The Cox model is then compared to probit analysis on the 1973 recruit cohort of four-year obligors. Evidence is presented to show that the Cox model can be useful for estimating recruit survival from cross-sectional data.
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DEVELOPING STRATEGIES FOR CLASS A AND C SCHOOL TRAINING
January 1, 1980
The effects on first-term survival and reenlistment of delayed and normal entry into Class A schools for initial specialized training are analyzed. Ways of timing delayed entry to improve retention are suggested. A model for developing training plans to meet requirements for men with advanced specialized training in Class C schools is summarized.
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FACTORS THAT AFFECT THE CAREER DECISION OF MARINE CORPS PILOTS AND FLIGHT OFFICERS, VOLUME I, MAIN TEXT AND APPENDIXES A AND B
December 1, 1979
Over the past several years, the Marine Corps has experienced an increasingly high rate of attrition among its pilots and flight officers. Based on a survey of all active duty and some recently separated pilots and flight officers, this study identifies the issues and attitudes that motivate the career decision. Recommendations are made for reducing attrition.
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AN ANALYSIS OF DELAYED ENTRY INTO CLASS A SCHOOLS
September 1, 1979
This report evaluates delayed Class A technical school entry versus immediate entry after recruit training. The effects of recruit background and service characteristics on first-term loss and reenlistment probabilities are measured. Conclusions are drawn about the selection of enlistees for A school attendance either immediately after recruit training or after general duty in the fleet on the basis of their characteristics.
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The Effects of Reenlistment Bonuses
December 1, 1978
During the period FY 1966-74, the variable reenlistment bonus (VRB) was the primary policy tool used by the Navy to increase retention in enlisted occupations (ratings). Placing the reenlistment decision in an occupational choice framework, this paper employs regression techniques to analyze the effect of reenlistment bonuses on first-term reenlistments, and moreover on lengths of recommitment and second-term reenlistments, two areas that had not been investigated previously. With ratings as the units of observation, data is analyzed for selected intervals up to FY 1973. The results contained in this paper are applied in the Manpower Compensation Study in determining the cost-effectiveness of using reenlistment bonuses to obtain additional careerists relative to first-termers. The techniques of analysis developed in this paper, as well as the general findings, are equally applicable to the selective reenlistment bonus (SRB).
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