Research for Personnel Retention

This report quantifies the link between civilian job growth and military retention for Navy enlisted personnel. The magnitude of this effect is identified--at both the first and second re-enlistment decision points--for highly technical ratings and for ratings which are not highly technical. The effect that future civilian job growth will have on the chances that Navy personnel will reenlist or leave is then projected, using occupational forecasts for the next decade provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Previous studies have examined the factors that influence first-term retention. This analysis expands on prior work to investigate the impact of these factors on retention and the quality of personnel retained. We find that the aggregate pay elasticity is approximately 2 (which is similar to that found in earlier analyses), but that this result masks substantial differences in the pay responsiveness of different personnel. Upper mental group personnel displayed a pay elasticity in excess of 3, whereas personnel in the lower groups had an elasticity of approximately 1. Thus, pay increases improve the quality of the career force as well as increasing the number of personnel retained. Conversely, if Navy pay lags behind civilian earnings, the decline in retention is compounded by a decrease in quality. Upper mental group personnel seemed to be more sensitive to changes in the civilian unemployment rate as well. There is a significant relationship between advancement and retention. The effect is stronger than that expected from the related pay increase. It seems to indicate that advancement can be an effective and selective retention tool.

Assesses the effect on the Navy's budget of a return to peacetime conscription in the United States. The report also examines the implications that peacetime conscription would have for the structure of the all-volunteer force.

Examines the impact of changing social, economic, and demographic factors on the manpower market, evaluates the cost effectiveness of compensation policies for meeting requirements; suggests ways to measure personnel productivity; and develops policy options for balancing enlisted manpower requirements and resources.