Research for Personnel Retention

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June 1, 1998
This study examines potential manpower costs of outsourcing Navy jobs that result from more Sailors having to work out-of-skill. To examine these costs, we estimated the effects on retention and advancement of working in billets related to one's skill and in instructor billets. Focusing on E5 and E6 billets, we then compare the quantifiable costs of outsourcing military billets to the expected savings. Currently, 49.6 percent of E5 and E6 Sailors are assigned to rating-specific NECs on their shore tours. The analysis finds that if more than 49.6 percent of the outsourced billets are rating-specific, there would be fewer opportunities to work in-skill and lower retention, which would lead to costs to offset. We recommend that, when determining what billets to compete, the Navy start with general skill billets and other out-of-skill billets. Furthermore, if the Navy were to compete in-skill billets, we recommend that it compete low-training billets before high-training and instructor billets.
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April 1, 1998
The Deputy Chief of Naval Personnel asked CNA to analyze ways to transform the size and shape of the enlisted force to better meet the Navy's future requirements at an affordable cost. This research analyzes alternatives to the existing sea pay structure that generate voluntary extensions of sea duty, reduce crew turnover, and improve retention. The briefing discusses three options: an accelerated phase-in of sea pay table, an expanded sea pay premium, and a mixture of phase-in and sea pay premium. It compares them with maintaining the existing structure of the sea pay table and simply scaling it up by the rate of inflation and also assesses their effectiveness in reducing enlisted crew turnover and increasing sea duty and retention among the enlisted sailors. An accelerated phase-in option, which generates more first-term retention and helps with sea/shore balance, is recommended.
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April 1, 1998
This paper examines the effectiveness of Voluntary Education (VOLED) Program, which provides off-duty educational opportunities integrating a variety of continuing education programs to Sailors seeking to enhance their professional and personal growth. VOLED comprises three major instructional elements: Tuition Assistance, the Program for Afloat College Education (PACE) and the Academic Skills Learning Centers (ASLCs). The analyses finds that college education through VOLED improves promotion prospects, helps Sailors retake the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) to qualify for Navy ratings for which they were not eligible, has a significant positive impact on retention, and that all elements are cost-effective. The report recommends maintaining full support for VOLED and accelerating academic skills investments. It also recommends modifying the ASLC contract to promote greater participation and establishing an academic transcript system. Finally, it recommends encouraging a more supportive command climate and limiting the enrollment of E1s and E2s.
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October 1, 1997
This annotated briefing analyzes the costs and benefits of aging the Navy's enlisted force to form recommendations about future accession levels and retention strategy. 'Aging the force' means boosting retention to get a higher distribution of experience in the enlisted force, not delaying sailors' retirement. The costs of aging the force are the costs of buying higher retention plus the higher pay and benefits that more senior sailors receive. The benefits of aging the force are recruiting and training savings from fewer accessions plus the higher fleet readiness that comes with more experienced sailors. The analysis, including all aged-force scenarios, is a steady-state analysis; accession levels were developed to support the expected force for 2005 and beyond. By choosing and adopting its accession goals as soon as possible, the Navy can avooid creating either a future undersupply or a future oversupply of sailors with a given length of service (LOS).
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February 1, 1997
In recent years, the maximum bonus paid to Navy aviators has not yielded the desired increase in continuation in some aviation subcommunities. Furthermore, Navy planners anticipate future shortfalls as the small, drawdown-era year groups approach the ends of their obligations. In response to these past and projected shortfalls, BURPERS has recommended increasing the current maximum annual award. N1 tasked CNA to analyze the effectiveness of the current legislated maximum bonus award under the Navy's Aviation Continuation Pay (ACP) program and to estimate bonus levels needed to induce adequate continuation of Navy aviators in the near future. The program's purpose is to ensure sufficient continuation to meet squadron department head requirements.
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April 1, 1996
From FY 1992 to FY 1994, the Navy's Zone B retention rate for enlisted personnel fell by 13 percentage points. Zone B refers to sailors in their seventh to tenth year of service. The Center for Navy Analyses studied this drop in retention and found that the FY 1994 rate was about 5 percentage points below the rate projected in the post-drawdown steady state. The study also concluded that Navy drawdown policies could explain 8 percentage points of the 13-point decline in retention seen between FY 1992 and FY 1994. Of those 8 points, 2.4 were attributed to monetary separation incentives. However, the effects of any Navy policy are difficult to pinpoint because of the large number of factors at play that also affect retention. For example, the drawdown coincided with an upturn in the civilian economy, which may have also contributed to the drop in retention from FY 1992 to FY 1994.
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March 1, 1996
In October of 1992, the Tidewater area of Virginia was designated as a demonstration site for Tricare. The demonstration project makes fundamental changes in the financing and delivery of health care to military beneficiaries currently served by Naval Hospital, Portsmouth; McDonald Army Hospital, Ft. Eustis; and 1st Medical Group (TAC), Langley Air Force Base. Tricare Tidewater is a triservice managed-care initiative, designed to enhance military beneficiaries' access to care, improve mechanisms for quality assurance, control rising costs, and increase coordination between military and civilian components of the Military Health Services Systems (MHSS). Although increasing physician satisfaction was not a direct goal of the program, many of the changes implemented may affect the way that military physicians practice medicine in the Tidewater region and their attitudes regarding their role in the MHSS. Certainly, any positive effects would be welcomed, but a decline in physician satisfaction could lead to lower retention rates for military physicians, as well as lower levels of physician performance, patient satisfaction, and quality of care. In this research memorandum, we measure the impact of the first two years of the Tricare program on physician satisfaction.
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February 1, 1996
The Navy's Graduate Medical Education (GME) program consists of post-medical school programs to train physicians. These programs have been successful in improving the quality and dependability of sources of medical corps personnel. In recent years, the Navy has downsized GME somewhat. Further reductions in GME may be mandated because of budget constraints, but Medical Operational Support Requirements - which support the Marine Corps, ships afloat, and Navy bases outside the continental United States - may require some specialty programs to enlarge. Therefore, the Surgeon General of the Navy, via the Assistant Chief for Plans, Analysis, and Evaluation, asked CNA to study past medical corps attrition and build a model to assist with the planning of GME program size. This research memorandum addresses how the Navy can set priorities among its GME programs, a subject currently under study by staffs working for the Chief, Medical Corps, the Assistant Chief for Personnel Management, the Assistant Chief for Plans, Analysis, and Evaluation, and the former Health Services Education and Training command. This memorandum is intended to assist the work of these staffs.
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March 1, 1994
CNA has studied the relationship between various dimensions of time at sea and retention over many years. In general, we have found that more time at sea produces lower retention, but the magnitude of the effects is more modest than many Navy officers expected. We have also found that higher pay (military relative to civilian) increases retention. Given the relative magnitudes of the sea duty and pay effects, we have concluded that modest increases in pay could be cost effective in offsetting the negative effects of increased sea duty. As the Navy has considered the implications of our past studies and has wrestled with difficult downsizing choices, three questions remained about the applicability of the results of our previous studies for Navy planning: (1) Does quality of life during turnarounds affect retention? (2) What is the cost to maintain retention if time at sea is increased? and (3) Are Navy Retention/Separation Surveys consistent with previous CNA analyses? This briefing addresses these questions. We start by summarizing our answers to the three questions. Explanations of how we reached the conclusions follow.
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June 1, 1993
As the Navy shrinks, it is likely that the ratio of sea duty to shore duty will rise and advancement opportunities will fall for enlisted personnel. This research memorandum investigates the relationships of sea duty, advancement, and reenlistment at the end of the first term. We explore these relationships with a variety of statistical models while controlling for economic variables, personal characteristics, fiscal year, and rating group. With regard to sea duty, we support the evidence found in other studies: sea duty has a negative but small effect on retention for first-term sailors. For advancement, we are unable to separate an advancement effect independent of such variables as pay and ability. We do not conclude that advancement does not effect retention -- rather that pay and ability, which are closely linked to advancement, capture the main impact of advancement on retention.
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