Research for Personnel Attrition

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SUCCESS CHANCES OF RECRUITS ENTERING THE NAVY (SCREEN)
December 1, 1978
Success Chances of REcruits Entering the Navy (SCREEN) are validated and extended from the first through the second year of service. Selection rates and predicted one- and two-year loss rates at different SCREEN cutting scores are calculated for recruitment planning. Inconsistencies in AFQT mental group measurement and irregularities in AFQT test administration since 1973 are pointed out. A conversion of AFQT scores derived from the current Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) to the mental groups used in SCREEN is provided, along with revised SCREEN chances for ASVAB mental groups.
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A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF LABOR TURNOVER
November 1, 1978
This paper presents estimates of displacements and unreplaced attritions in industries that experience permanent net reductions in employment. Such information may be helpful in the formulation of trade policies as well as for the evaluation of the trade adjustment assistance program.
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Quality of Marines, Pre-Enlistment Screening Based on Predicted Performance
March 1, 1978
This analysis examines the mathematical relations between the performance of first-term Marines and their test scores and selected personal characteristics. The objective is to predict performance when only certain test scores and personal characteristics are known (i.e., at time of application for enlistment). A step-wise linear multiple regression process is used to identify the variables which best predict performance. Measures of performance include early attrition, desertion, early promotion, and rank achieved. A procedure for expressing the results in terms of the (new) ASVAB preenlistment test is provided, and a method for application of these results to Marine Corps enlistment screening is presented.
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A METHODOLOGY FOR COMPARISON OF ATTRITION FORECASTING MODELS
December 1, 1977
This analysis develops a methodology for comparing forecasting models and examines in detail the ability of available attrition/ success models to adequately predict the service performance of nongraduate Marines. Available models will almost always select graduates over nongraduates; therefore, it is possible that these models cannot optimally select from among the remaining non-graduates - some of whom the Marine Corps will be forced to accept. The data was disaggregated and the attrition of graduates and nongraduates was examined separately. The results of this analysis indicate that using a separate attrition/success model developed especially for non-graduates will not significantly improve the accuracy and reliability of prediction. The conclusion, therefore, is that existing models, which deal with an aggregated population, are both appropriate and sufficient.
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MARINE CORPS ENLISTED ATTRITION
November 1, 1977
This analysis is an examination of the attrition of Marine Corps recruits during initial recruit training. Shortly after the implementation of the all-volunteer armed force concept, Marine Corps recruit attrition began to increase. The difference in attrition rates at the two Recruit Training Depots increased also, with the rate higher at Parris Island and lower at San Diego. This analysis shows that the increase as well as the depot differences in recruit attrition were associated with changing characteristics of the recruitment population, such as education and aptitude test scores, rather than with Marine Corps policy or local depot circumstances.
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An Overview of the OSD/ONR Conference on First Term Enlisted Attrition
August 1, 1977

The document contains briefing slides and accompanying text summarizing the viewpoints presented at a conference concerning causes of and solutions to premature attrition.

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PREDICTING ATTRITION: A TEST OF ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES
May 1, 1977

This document provides briefing slides and accompanying text that describe the background of predicting premature enlisted attrition in the military service, four competing approaches to predicting this attrition, a test of these approaches, and the implications of the results for recruiting policy.

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A MODEL FOR PREDICTING RECRUIT LOSSES
October 1, 1976
This paper develops a model of losses during the first year of service to be used in evaluating recruiting policy and applicants for enlistment.
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CHANCES OF SURVIVING THE FIRST YEAR OF SERVICE, A NEW TECHNIQUE FOR USE IN MAKING RECRUITING POLICY AND SCREENING APPLICANTS FOR THE NAVY
June 1, 1976
Recruits who joined the Navy during the first year of the all volunteer force were tracked through their first year of service. Background and selection test data were related to premature discharges from this cohort, and a table showing estimated chances of surviving the first year of service was produced. The table can be used for planning recruiting policy and screening applicants for enlistment.
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MOTIVATIONAL FACTORS IN ACCESSION AND RETENTION BEHAVIOR
July 1, 1974
Motivational factors in accession and retention behavior of Navy men are identified in a reanalysis of 3 past surveys. Economic, psychological, and personal history variables are found to be of joint importance in predicting enlistment and reenlistment behavior. Better measurement of these kinds of variables should result in improved predictions and policy control mechanisms.
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