Research for Personnel Attrition

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An Analysis of the Active Duty Service Obligation (ADSO) for Navy Pilots
October 1, 1988
Because of persistent shortages of personnel to fill instructor billets in the aviator community, the Active Duty Service Obligation (ADSO) for naval aviation officers was increased on 1 July 1987. Newly commissioned officers in the aviation community are now required to make a six-year commitment to the Navy after receiving their wings. This change has prompted policymakers to ask about the optimal minimum service requirement. This research memorandum analyzes the ADSO for Navy pilots. The analysis included the development of a model that captures the effect of changes in the ADSO on the total compensation and training costs of pilots through the first 15 years of service.
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Performance of Non-Prior-Service Navy Recruits: 1978 - 1986
August 1, 1988
This research memorandum describes measures of recruit success in the Navy using five performance indicators: desertion, demotion, first-term attrition, promotion, and retention. The CNA data base used here includes all non-prior-service accessions between FY 1978 and December 1986.
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An Analysis of Navy Enlisted Tour Lengths
July 1, 1988
The Navy experiences a substantial amount of turnover among enlisted personnel. Some of this is unplanned (precontract attrition), but much of the turnover is the result of rotation or losses upon the completion of an enlistment contract. This research memorandum summarizes information on the actual length of completed tours for a sample of more than 10,000 tours completed in 1985 and 1986.
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Determining Continuation Rates for Pilots from the Officer Master File
June 1, 1988
This research memorandum examines how the definition of the continuation rate for Naval officers is implemented using data from the Officer Master File. Continuation rates are measured for a cohort of officers defined by their designator and year group. Several conceptual and data problems arise because the simple definition of the continuation rate does not account for various inflows and outflows for specific cohorts. The effect of including or excluding various subgroups within a cohort is considered using pilots from year groups 73 through 78 for the period from 1980 through 1986.
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Who Stays and Who Leaves? Identifying Successful Navy Recruits
June 1, 1988
This research memorandum examines the relationship between recruit characteristics and recruit success. The analysis uses three related measures of recruit performance and several recruit characteristics obtained from enlistment applications to determine the characteristics of recruits who are more likely to be successful. Indexes of recruit-success propensity for recruits with different characteristics are calculated for each of the three performance measures.
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Retention in the Naval Reserve Force
February 1, 1988
This research memorandum investigates continuation rates in the Naval Reserve Force by tracking individuals' records from quarter to quarter. The nature and timing of attrition are analyzed. Tests are performed for differences in continuation rates by geographical area, paygrade, length of service, rating, program of entry into the Reserve, and type of ship.
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Retention Behavior of Enlisted TARS in Surface-Expansion Ratings
December 1, 1987
The results of the Surface-Expansion TAR Retention Study is documented in this research memorandum. It investigates retention behavior of TAR and regular active-duty personnel in surface-expansion ratings in an effort to discern any significant differences between them. It also examines the background characteristics of enlisted TARs in surface-expansion ratings, summarizes their retention decisions, and models first-term TAR and regular active-duty enlisted retention behavior.
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Modeling Spikes in Hazard Rates
October 1, 1987
The probability of survival can be estimated using a parametric survival model in which a single regression equation is used to summarize the data. For some data, the hazard rate at particular intervals of time differs markedly from the rest of the hazard function. This sharp rise in the hazard rate violates the requirements of the common parametric survival models, and indicates that some alternative modeling approach should be considered. This research contribution outlines a methodology for estimating parametric survival models given non-smooth survival data. As an example of this methodology the procedure is used to estimate the survival pattern of Marine Corps Selected Reservists.
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A Study of Marine Corps Family Programs
September 1, 1987
The Family Service Centers (FSCs) present a diverse set of services to Marines and their families. This report presents the results of a study of Marine Corps family programs provided by the FSCs. These services include personal, family, and financial counseling, employment assistance, help for victims of domestic violence, and other services. Data from the 1985 DOD Member and Spouse surveys, USMC exit questionnaires, administrative records, and special purpose surveys of FSC directors and Marine unit commanders are used to assess the success of FSCs in meeting the objectives of serving commanders and Marines and their families and to estimate the impact of family programs on Marine retention.
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Final Report of the Enlisted Manpower, Personnel and Training Study
September 1, 1986
Summarizes the work and finding of the Enlisted Manpower, Personnel and Training study conducted by a team of analysts at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA). The study examined ways the Navy can most cost effectively attract and retain the enlisted personnel it needs when it is growing and when faced by stronger competition from the civilian sector and other services. Detailed descriptions of the analysis have been published in a series of CNA publications; this report summarizes those works and highlights the main findings relevant to the Navy's manpower needs.
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