Research for Personnel Attrition
June 1, 1998
A primary tasking for this study was to build a permanent database integrating Navy recruiting, training, and manpower/personnel data which would follow recruits from street to fleet and use variables designed to capture the kinds of information needed by decision-makers. This paper summarizes our analyses and briefly describes the database. It begins with the different analyses we did of the bootcamp period, goes on to a discussion of rating attainment, and finishes with our analyses of trained sailors in the fleet. Findings and recommendations include coding separation reasons more consistently, revising the CNET monthly bootcamp attrition report, more careful screening of sailors with nonacademic course failures who are sent to the fleet, and supporting initiatives to provide a second chance at school for sailors who fail an A-school course.
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April 1, 1996
From FY 1992 to FY 1994, the Navy's Zone B retention rate for enlisted personnel fell by 13 percentage points. Zone B refers to sailors in their seventh to tenth year of service. The Center for Navy Analyses studied this drop in retention and found that the FY 1994 rate was about 5 percentage points below the rate projected in the post-drawdown steady state. The study also concluded that Navy drawdown policies could explain 8 percentage points of the 13-point decline in retention seen between FY 1992 and FY 1994. Of those 8 points, 2.4 were attributed to monetary separation incentives. However, the effects of any Navy policy are difficult to pinpoint because of the large number of factors at play that also affect retention. For example, the drawdown coincided with an upturn in the civilian economy, which may have also contributed to the drop in retention from FY 1992 to FY 1994.
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February 1, 1996
The Navy's Graduate Medical Education (GME) program consists of post-medical school programs to train physicians. These programs have been successful in improving the quality and dependability of sources of medical corps personnel. In recent years, the Navy has downsized GME somewhat. Further reductions in GME may be mandated because of budget constraints, but Medical Operational Support Requirements - which support the Marine Corps, ships afloat, and Navy bases outside the continental United States - may require some specialty programs to enlarge. Therefore, the Surgeon General of the Navy, via the Assistant Chief for Plans, Analysis, and Evaluation, asked CNA to study past medical corps attrition and build a model to assist with the planning of GME program size. This research memorandum addresses how the Navy can set priorities among its GME programs, a subject currently under study by staffs working for the Chief, Medical Corps, the Assistant Chief for Personnel Management, the Assistant Chief for Plans, Analysis, and Evaluation, and the former Health Services Education and Training command. This memorandum is intended to assist the work of these staffs.
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March 1, 1994
CNA has studied the relationship between various dimensions of time at sea and retention over many years. In general, we have found that more time at sea produces lower retention, but the magnitude of the effects is more modest than many Navy officers expected. We have also found that higher pay (military relative to civilian) increases retention. Given the relative magnitudes of the sea duty and pay effects, we have concluded that modest increases in pay could be cost effective in offsetting the negative effects of increased sea duty. As the Navy has considered the implications of our past studies and has wrestled with difficult downsizing choices, three questions remained about the applicability of the results of our previous studies for Navy planning: (1) Does quality of life during turnarounds affect retention? (2) What is the cost to maintain retention if time at sea is increased? and (3) Are Navy Retention/Separation Surveys consistent with previous CNA analyses? This briefing addresses these questions. We start by summarizing our answers to the three questions. Explanations of how we reached the conclusions follow.
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February 1, 1994
This research memorandum helps answer the question of whether there are performance differences between Marines who are married (or have dependents) and single Marines. The population of first-term Marines is 'more married' that it used to be: the ratio of married to single Marines has changed from 1:5 to 1:4 in the last decade. The analysis of performance focuses on a Marine's career at entry, during the first term, and beyond the first term. Results show that: (a) the recent rise in the dependency rate took place across most age groups and paygrades; (b) there are no substantial racial differences in marriage behavior; and (c) first-term enlisted Marines are more likely to be married than civilians of comparable educational backgrounds and ages. This study provides useful information to policymakers considering a reduction in the first-term marriage and dependency rate.
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September 1, 1993
As part of the study Managing the Enlisted Marine Corps in the 1990s, CNA analyzed success patterns of Marines making lateral moves. Each of these Marines retrains in a primary military occupational specialty different from the original one. The Marine Corps currently has no basis for judging the success of Marines initiating lateral moves. Our analysis of historical data provides planners with information to help judge the efficiency of these moves. We will first describe the Marine Corps manpower planning and how lateral moves fit into this planning. We then consider the costs of selective reenlistment bonuses versus lateral moves. Finally, we provide statistical analysis of historical data on lateral moves. Our analysis of lateral moves focuses on the following considerations: (a) patterns of successful completion of a lateral move; (b) the promotion and attrition experience of Marines who have made lateral moves relative to their cohorts; and (c) experience in the Marine Corps compared with performance of occupation-related tasks.
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June 1, 1993
As the Navy shrinks, it is likely that the ratio of sea duty to shore duty will rise and advancement opportunities will fall for enlisted personnel. This research memorandum investigates the relationships of sea duty, advancement, and reenlistment at the end of the first term. We explore these relationships with a variety of statistical models while controlling for economic variables, personal characteristics, fiscal year, and rating group. With regard to sea duty, we support the evidence found in other studies: sea duty has a negative but small effect on retention for first-term sailors. For advancement, we are unable to separate an advancement effect independent of such variables as pay and ability. We do not conclude that advancement does not effect retention -- rather that pay and ability, which are closely linked to advancement, capture the main impact of advancement on retention.
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March 1, 1993
This research memorandum provides an overview of first-term attrition in the Marine Corps. It discusses trends in attrition, the timing and costs, and the historical relationship between attrition rates and recruit characteristics. Finally, it briefly discusses reasons for separation.
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February 1, 1993
This research memorandum completes the Managing the Enlisted Marine Corps in the 1990s Study. It summarizes study analyses, referring the reader to more detailed papers if more information is required.
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February 1, 1992
This research memorandum documents analyses of the relationship between Personnel Tempo of Operations (PERSTEMPO) and enlisted retention. CNA's ship employment history files were used to reconstruct the PERSTEMPO experience of each surface ship since the mid-1970s. This PERSTEMPO information was added to the personnel records of sailors making retention decisions while aboard surface ships in the FY 1979 through FY 1988 period. Finally, information on pay, civilian employment opportunities, and bonuses was added to each sailor's record. A statistical regression technique was used to explore the relations between PERSTEMPO and retention. A by-product of the study is updated estimates of the relationship and relative military pay, unemployment rates, and selective reenlistment bonuses.
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