Research for Officers

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An Evaluation of Navy Unrestricted Line Officer Accession Programs
May 1, 1977

This paper constructs a steady state linear programming model that solves for the optimal number of accessions from the nine sources for line officers. Costs are minimized subject to the constraint that, for each Navy occupation, the required number of officers at each rank is met. The inputs to the model include the present value of costs, the initial distribution of officers across occupations, retention, and promotion success.

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AN ECONOMIC INVESTIGATION OF PERIODIC HEALTH EXAMINATION PROGRAMS
August 1, 1974
Data on Navy, Marine Corps, and Army officers who were retired because of disability are investigated to enable inferences regarding the benefits and costs of alternative periodic health examination strategies. The periodic health screening program is treated on one level as a production function whose output is the ability of the program to detect illness and whose inputs are the frequency of the examinations and the scope of an examination. The parameters of this function are estimated. Then, at a second level, the respective effects of variations in age and variations in the ability of the periodic health screening program to detect illness, upon the rate of serious morbidity in the population, are examined. While the cost differences are substantial between a frequent, thorough program and one with examinations of low frequency and scope, the differences in serious morbidity between the two extremes appear to be negligible for all age groups studied (ages 24 through 48).
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THE CNA OFFICER PROJECTION MODEL, VOL I GUIDE FOR USERS
June 1, 1974
The Officer Projection Model (OPM) projects the flow of officers through the ranks of the U.S. Navy. It projects an initial officer inventory (characterized by length of service, grade, and promotion status) in yearly increments, accounting for attrition, promotion, legal constraints (Title 10 of the U.S. Code), and such management policies as minimum accession requirements and end strength targets. It is devoted especially to simulating the Navy's officer promotion system, and provides several options which consider the interactions of flow point, promotion rate, zone size, grade structure and end strength, and early and late selection. The OPM will also compute annual compensation, separation pay, retirement pay, and the present value of retirement pay for the remaining life expectancy of projected retirees. The model provides management with a tool for evaluating alternative promotion policies and retirement proposals, and for studying the interactions of officer end strengths, promotions, and accessions, and the cost of changes in longevity and grade structure. The Guide for Users, Volume I, describes the Navy's officer system and the model and discusses the data and policy variables to be specified by the user. The Guide for Programmers, Volume II, provides a detailed explanation of the computer coding as an aid to changing, and making special adaptations of the model.
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