Research for Nuclear Proliferation

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A Nuclear-Armed Iran's Impact on Global Security: A Report for the Centro Militare di Studi Strategici (CeMISS), Roma, Italia
December 1, 2005
The Centro Militare di Studi Strategici (CeMISS) in Rome, part of the NDU equivalent of the Italian Ministry of Defense (CASD), has wanted to set up a continuing relation with CNA, following a program they had with RAND. As a pilot project, on a personal basis, Drs. Gaffney and Whiteneck responded to CeMISS's request for a study of the implications of a nuclear-armed Iran for both the Middle East and a wider sphere, particularly southern Europe. The study explores what Iran's strategic relations are at present (end-2005), and how these might chnage if Iran had nuclear weapons. THe answer generally is that it complicates these relations and makes Iran a target for nuclear retaliation if they were ever to use such weapons. This document includes the transcript of a discussion in Rome and te briefing presented to frame the discussion. This study is also being published by CeMISS in an Italian translation.
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Globalization and Proliferation: A Presentation to a Workshop of Proliferation Networks at the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, 29 June - 1 July, 2005
August 1, 2005
This paper was prepared for a conference on proliferation networks held at the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, from 29 June to 1 July 2005. The conference was sponsored by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). The general proposition of the paper is that both globalization as we know it and proliferation -- particularly, nuclear proliferation, which is discussed in this paper -- started in 1945 with the end of World War II. The spread of globalization, especially after the end of the Cold War in 1989, has been extensive, moving immense numbers of people out of poverty. In contrast, nuclear proliferation has been sparse, with only 8 members of the set and two others (North Korea and Iran) about to join. Proliferation is an aspect of globalization, but it is at the moment a choice of those countries opting out of globalization. The prospects of terrorists getting nuclear weapons is exceedingly remote.
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