Research for NLSY97

Given increasingly difficult recruiting conditions, we examine the feasibility of raising the Marine Corps’ self-imposed cap of 1 percent on Category IV accessions. We limit our analysis to top Category IVAs (Cat. IVAs)–those scoring between 26 and 31 on the AFQT who are high school degree graduates. We use the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1997 to analyze the national population of Cat. IVAs. We find that the population of top Cat. IVAs is large enough to support an increase in the accession cap. Then, using CNA accession cohort data, we compare the attrition rates of top Cat. IVAs to bottom Cat. IIIB (AFQT between 31 and 41 and high school degree graduates) and Adult Education/ 1 Semester college recruits. Top Cat. IVAs have attrition rates, both from bootcamp and from the first term of service, similar to those of bottom Cat. IIIBs. We also find that Top Cat. IVA Marines have lower attrition than Adult Education/ 1 Semester College Marines.