Research for Navies

In response to a request from the Commander in Chief, Atlantic Fleet (CINCLANTFLT), for options regarding hemisphere naval cooperation, CNA conducted a study of the mid- and long-range importance of Latin America for U.S. Navy and CINCLANTFLT strategic planning. The study considered the full range of navy-to-navy relations and projected developments in light of the changing international security environment, new roles and missions, and the roles that Latin Americans can play within U.S. Navy plans. We developed a framework for evaluating the U.S. Navy's cooperative programs with Latin America in terms of their scope and impact on a continuum of U.S. national security objectives that range from goodwill through broad foreign policy objectives, to national defense goals, and specific military goals. We examined the evolving Latin American national security environment, developed a typology of naval roles and missions, and projected force structure to the year 2000. Finally, we cataloged the U.S. Navy's programs, evaluated their scope and impact, and assessed their contribution to national security goals.

The Commander, Seventh Fleet, asked CNA to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) to the year 2010. In addition to an examination of the major countries of the region, of security trends in Asia (e.g., demographics and weapon development), and of future economic trends in the APR, this assessment warranted an evaluation of Chinese naval capabilities over the period of interest. This research memorandum presents the results of that evaluation. Much of the debate over China's future naval capabilities focuses on whether China will soon have a 'bluewater' navy. In this analysis, we argue that one of China's strategic objectives is to develop a regional navy. We define 'regional' or 'greenwater' navy as a navy capable of effectively achieving China's current regional aspirations (e.g., blockade of Taiwan, seizure of one or more islands in the Spratlys, sustainment of a naval force in the South China Sea, and the ability to inflict damage upon an intervening foreign navy).

In response to a request from the Commander in Chief, U.S. Atlantic Fleet (CINCLANTFLT), the Center for Naval Analyses conducted a study of the mid- and long-range importance of Latin America in U.S. Navy strategic planning, especially that of and in relation to CINCLANTFLT. The study considered the full range of hemisphere navy-to-navy relations and examined the modalities and value of activities to both the U.S. Navy and to Latin American navies. It also examined future developments for Latin American navies in light of the changing international security environment and the roles that Latin American can play. This research memorandum is one of a series of documents prepared in response to CINCLANTFLT's request. It contains the detailed analytical data supporting the study's final report. It is an extensive catalog of U.S. Navy program and dealings with Latin America and Latin Americans. In-depth analyses and extensive interview data permitted us to evaluate the scope and impact of programs and to assess their contribution to national security goals. The Navy program are divided into the following categories: (1) Political-military interaction; (2) Facility access in Latin America; (3) Exercises and other operations; (4) Operational exchanges; (5) Professional military-education programs; (6) U.S. Marine Corps activities; (7) Interoperability; (8) Security assistance; (9) Research and development; and (10) Miscellaneous.

Despite current political and socio-economic uncertainties, the Russian leaders continue to develop new concepts regarding the role and capabilities of the future Russian Navy. This study examines three likely parameters of future Russian naval development: current implementation of the 'reasonable sufficiency' concept, the Russian image of future war, and Russia's new military doctrine. On both the nuclear and conventional levels, the application of 'reasonable sufficiency' to future naval development continues to generate a significant degree of civil-military divergence. On the other hand, a strong civil-military consensus underlies Russian views on the role of naval forces in future war. Like their Soviet predecessors, Russian military and civilian experts view Operation Desert Storm as the paradigm of future war in strategy, operational art, and tactics. Finally, Russia's new military doctrine and surrounding discussions provide evidence regarding Russia's 'vital' national interests, threats to these interests, and the role of the Russian Navy in Russian national security policy.