Research for National Security Policies

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Future Naval Cooperation with Latin America: Final Report
April 1, 1996

In response to a request from the Commander in Chief, Atlantic Fleet (CINCLANTFLT), for options regarding hemisphere naval cooperation, CNA conducted a study of the mid- and long-range importance of Latin America for U.S. Navy and CINCLANTFLT strategic planning. The study considered the full range of navy-to-navy relations and projected developments in light of the changing international security environment, new roles and missions, and the roles that Latin Americans can play within U.S. Navy plans. We developed a framework for evaluating the U.S. Navy's cooperative programs with Latin America in terms of their scope and impact on a continuum of U.S. national security objectives that range from goodwill through broad foreign policy objectives, to national defense goals, and specific military goals. We examined the evolving Latin American national security environment, developed a typology of naval roles and missions, and projected force structure to the year 2000. Finally, we cataloged the U.S. Navy's programs, evaluated their scope and impact, and assessed their contribution to national security goals.

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South Asia and the Indian Ocean: The Strategic Environment, 1995
March 1, 1996
The Commander, U.S. Seventh Fleet, asked CNA to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region between now and 2010. This memorandum identifies the most probable evolutionary trends for the Indian Ocean Region, with particular emphasis on the largest factor, India. Research team members conducted interviews with officials, officers, and scholars in Washington, New Delhi, and Islamabad, and in Hawaii with CINCPAC staff members, and East-West Center and other University of Hawaii scholars. The project team also drew heavily on expert opinion available in Washington, at the Departments of State and Defense, at the National Defense University and from the intelligence and scholarly communities.
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Japan 2010: Prospective Profiles
March 1, 1996
This research memorandum is part of a study sponsored by the Commander, Seventh Fleet, to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. The study attempts to identify the most probable evolutionary trends in the APR out to 2010, and to derive implications for U.S. forces, particularly the Navy. This memorandum identifies these trends for Japan. The implications for the forces and for the Navy are contained in the final report for this project. The analysis strongly suggests the importance of a stable, credible U.S. presence in Japan in reinforcing Japan s current, yet potentially problematic, pro-U.S. orientation. The U.S. presence will significantly influence Japan' s defense policies because it will determine the credibility of broad U.S. nuclear and other security guarantees to Japan. Such a presence cannot be taken for granted 15 years hence.
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Russia and Northeast Asia
February 1, 1996
The Commander, Seventh Fleet, asked CNA to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. This research memorandum focuses on the most probable evolutionary trends for Russia and the Russian Far East during this period. It is based on information available through March 1995.
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National Security Strategy and Forward Presence: Implications for Acquisition and Use of Forces
March 1, 1994
The post-Cold War national security strategy engages U.S. power in all its form to shape a more secure world. Overseas presence--operating forces forward to influence what foreign governments think and do--is the most important and challenging of the tasks this strategy assigns the Armed Forces. This paper looks at the political and strategic case for presence and discusses some of its costs and risks. It draws conclusions about: (1) what presence means in our use of the forces we have now; and (2) what forces to buy for the future. It also suggests ways to make presence operations more efficient and issues deserving study in that regard.
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Commonwealth Defense Arrangements and International Securities
June 1, 1992
This paper is the first in a series jointly sponsored by the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) and Russia's Institute for USA and Canada (ISKAN). This particular paper, by Sergei Rogov and his staff at ISKAN, provides an extensive overview of the complex relations within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Rogov focuses specifically on military issues and the emergence of republican Armed Forces. The CIS arrangement is clearly not suitable for encouraging political cooperation; Rogov et al. suggests that it cannot even forge a military union. Yet, a new security structure has clearly emerged following the May summit in Tashkent. This paper discusses the implications of the Tashkent agreement as well as predicts a framework for Russia's future security relations.
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The Post-Cold War World: Charting a Safe Course
May 1, 1992
The Unite States is entering a momentous period in its history. The Cold War is over. The threat of world war III has dissipated along with the USSR and its communist part. The post-Cold War world is taking shape, with profound changes affecting both international and domestic politics. First, there appears to be a profound shift from geopolitics and military threat to geoeconomics as the basis for this new order. Second, the rebuilding of economic and social structures at home has assumed greater importance as a legitimate national security imperative. Given the strength, resilience, and leadership of the United States, it would appear that the end of the Cold War should redound to America s distinct advantage. The Center for Naval Analyses is using this year's annual conference as a forum to debate how these changes will affect America's national security policy and its maritime component in the post-Cold War world.
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Nuclear Breakup in the CIS
March 1, 1992
The former Soviet nuclear weapons complex has undergone dramatic changes in the months since the failed August coup and the dissolution of the USSR. Strategic and tactical nuclear weapons once under Moscow's control are now in the possession of several member states of the new Commonwealth of Independent States. Some of these Republics have adopted a clear denuclearization policy, but others have not. Addressing a recent seminar at the Center for Naval Analyses, Dr. Rose Gottemoeller of the RAND Corporation and Mr. George Perkovich, Director of the Secure Society Program at the W. Alton Jones Foundation, discussed issues relating to the disposition, control, and clean-up of the former Soviet nuclear arsenal and the implications for U.S. policy.
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Afghanistan: Two Opposing Views on the Soviet Military
January 1, 1991
This paper discusses opposing veiwpoints on Soviet military policy in Afghanistan. Principal areas of discussion include: (1) the decision-making behind the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan; (2) the impact of the Afghan war and Soviet attitudes toward their Afghan veterans; (3) the current status of the Soviet military; and (4) the future role of the Soviet military.
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The Evolving Role of the Supreme Soviet in National Security Decision-Making
October 1, 1990
The recent, radical movement toward democratization of the political system in the USSR has generated important changes in its legislative organs. This study examines the ongoing restructuring of these bodies, with particular emphasis on the Supreme Soviet and its evolving role in national security decision-making. A totally new state body, the Congress of People's Deputies, is also analyzed as to its structure, tasks, and responsibilities. From its membership was elected the new Supreme Soviet, which is contrasted with the 'old' Supreme Soviet, its history, organization, power, and responsibilities. The shifting sources of legislative power and the changing role of the new and strengthened legislative bodies are discussed.
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