Research for National Military and Defense Policies

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June 1, 1992
This paper is the first in a series jointly sponsored by the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) and Russia's Institute for USA and Canada (ISKAN). This particular paper, by Sergei Rogov and his staff at ISKAN, provides an extensive overview of the complex relations within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Rogov focuses specifically on military issues and the emergence of republican Armed Forces. The CIS arrangement is clearly not suitable for encouraging political cooperation; Rogov et al. suggests that it cannot even forge a military union. Yet, a new security structure has clearly emerged following the May summit in Tashkent. This paper discusses the implications of the Tashkent agreement as well as predicts a framework for Russia's future security relations.
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March 1, 1992
The former Soviet nuclear weapons complex has undergone dramatic changes in the months since the failed August coup and the dissolution of the USSR. Strategic and tactical nuclear weapons once under Moscow's control are now in the possession of several member states of the new Commonwealth of Independent States. Some of these Republics have adopted a clear denuclearization policy, but others have not. Addressing a recent seminar at the Center for Naval Analyses, Dr. Rose Gottemoeller of the RAND Corporation and Mr. George Perkovich, Director of the Secure Society Program at the W. Alton Jones Foundation, discussed issues relating to the disposition, control, and clean-up of the former Soviet nuclear arsenal and the implications for U.S. policy.
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November 1, 1991
This paper analyzes 'the way ahead' for the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps in view of recent events, in particular the dissolution of the Soviet threat, U.S. economic woes, and a vivid Southwest Asia experience. These events have led to three guiding themes for the Navy's future. First, naval forces should have a structure that continues to enable action in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. Phrased another way, the nation needs a 'three-ocean Navy.' Second, the Navy should not only adapt to a joint approach to military presence, crisis response, and regional contingencies but also play a key leadership role. The nation needs a 'joint Navy' and the Navy should take heed. Third, the naval acquisition process needs to adjust to better harmonize military industry with new national priorities. The nation needs 'opportunistic acquisition,' and this is a message to the military-industrial complex.
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April 1, 1991
This research memorandum explores the political effects of U.S. military presence in the Asian-Pacific region. It proposes a framework that outlines the goals of presence and the process through which political effects develop. It then uses this conceptual framework to examine the political effects of presence in the region. This paper surveys U.S. policy objectives in the future security environment in Asia and explores the direct contribution of presence to U.S. policy objectives and the indirect support it gives through bolstering stability. Finally, it notes some implications of the analysis for future U.S. force options in the region. See also 96 005100, 96 005200, and 55 000506.
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March 1, 1991
As the Cold War draws to an end, U.S. military presence in Asia is being called into question. Opponents of continued presence consider it a vestige of earlier times since there is presently no compelling threat to deter. Proponents of U.S. military presence argue that potential conflicts still exist, and that the U.S. must be forward-deployed to react to crisis in a timely manner. This paper analyzes U.S. presence in Southeast Asia.
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February 1, 1991
Since the end of World War II, U.S. Naval forces have played a major role in at least 207 U.S. responses to international incidents and crises, exclusive of the Korean and Vietnam wars. This research memorandum summarizes these U.S. Navy and U.S. Marine Corps crisis management operations. Updates 27 890315.
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January 1, 1991
This paper discusses opposing veiwpoints on Soviet military policy in Afghanistan. Principal areas of discussion include: (1) the decision-making behind the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan; (2) the impact of the Afghan war and Soviet attitudes toward their Afghan veterans; (3) the current status of the Soviet military; and (4) the future role of the Soviet military.
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September 1, 1990
National security decision-making in the Soviet Union has changed radically under Gorbachev. A key aspect of this change is the emergence of the institutchiki, or civilian academicians from the Soviet Academy of Sciences, as influential experts on defense issues. Previously these civilians had scant impact on the defense decision-making process, which was dominated by the General Staff and professional military cadre. Three developments point in this direction: the increased representation of the civilian experts in state and Party institutions dealing with foreign and security policy; the special role these civilians seem to be playing in developing and promoting Gorbachev's 'new thinking' in foreign and security policy; and, recent decisions that mark a sharp departure from earlier policies and reflect proposals originating with or developed by the institutchiki. This paper documents these trends, chiefly on the basis of articles that have appeared in the Soviet press. It also describes the resistance of the military to some of the new thinking and resultant proposals. The main actors in this unfolding drama include the top military leaders, principally the Minister of Defense and the Chief of the General Staff, and the most visible of the institutchiki: those employed by the Institute of the USA and Canada (IUSAC) and the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO).
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August 1, 1990
An open debate has erupted in the Soviet press on the future of Soviet carrier deployment. The debate generally pits civilians, in particular the specialists at the Academy of Sciences, against the military (and especially navy) high command. The civilians question the costs and efficacy of the carrier program, while military spokesmen have defended it. This research memorandum examines the debate by focusing on two recent articles that present the key arguments of both sides.
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July 1, 1990
Most examinations of proliferation issues concern controlling the spread of weaponry; this report goes further to delve into the potential military responses to proliferation. The objectives of this report are to raise awareness of this evolving problem, examine trends in proliferation to give a broad overview of this issue, frame the issues in a manner conducive to thoughtful analysis, consider scenarios for involvement by the U.S., and suggest several possible U.S. responses.
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