Research for National Internal Affairs

The Commander, U.S. Seventh Fleet, asked CNA to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region between now and 2010. This memorandum identifies the most probable evolutionary trends for the Indian Ocean Region, with particular emphasis on the largest factor, India. Research team members conducted interviews with officials, officers, and scholars in Washington, New Delhi, and Islamabad, and in Hawaii with CINCPAC staff members, and East-West Center and other University of Hawaii scholars. The project team also drew heavily on expert opinion available in Washington, at the Departments of State and Defense, at the National Defense University and from the intelligence and scholarly communities.

In this research memorandum, we present the findings of one portion of CNA's Future Russian Navy project, which was requested by the Director of Naval Intelligence. We examine what Russians commonly call 'the human factor' in naval affairs, or the set of issues concerned with attracting and retaining personnel and creating conditions that enable and encourage them to perform their missions. We look at three aspects of the human factor in turn: personnel procurement policy, day-to-day military economics, and the navy's relationship with society and local civilian officials. We discuss how the former Soviet Union traditionally approached each challenge and why the old approaches are failing today. We also describe the way the navy is functioning today, living with the residue of the old system, and adapting to cope with the changed environment. We conclude with an assessment of possible remedies to the Navy's human factor problem, and a discussion of current and prospective trends.

In 1991, separatist forces seeking independence have become active across the USSR. In one of the most important regions, the Soviet Far East, such a trend is visible, although it has received scant attention compared to movements in the Baltic states, Moldavia, and other areas. The struggle for change in the Soviet Far East pits the conservative forces, consisting of mid-level Communist Party personnel, senior military, and some members of the defense industrial and intelligence community, against virtually everyone else. The encroachments that this powerful coalition hopes to block include opening Vladivostok, the creation of free economic zones with the participation of foreigners, the conversion of the defense industry, and the emergence of non-communist political figures and ideas (including a plan to create an independent Far Eastern Republic). This research memorandum examines recent trends in the region -- political, military, and economic -- and looks ahead to possible outcomes. AD-A238033

The recent, radical movement toward democratization of the political system in the USSR has generated important changes in its legislative organs. This study examines the ongoing restructuring of these bodies, with particular emphasis on the Supreme Soviet and its evolving role in national security decision-making. A totally new state body, the Congress of People's Deputies, is also analyzed as to its structure, tasks, and responsibilities. From its membership was elected the new Supreme Soviet, which is contrasted with the 'old' Supreme Soviet, its history, organization, power, and responsibilities. The shifting sources of legislative power and the changing role of the new and strengthened legislative bodies are discussed.