Research for Modeling Personnel Inventory

We investigated the personnel inventory that would be necessary to meet the Navy’s manpower requirements for the 313-ship Navy. We find that at any time over the 30-year shipbuilding plan, the Service’s immediate manpower requirements could be satisfied with an endstrength of only 322,000. However, we estimated that the Service’s minimum viable long-term personnel inventory will be between 332,000 and 334,000. One reason for the higher long-term requirements is that the Navy will have to add about 3,500 enlisted shore billets to maintain reasonable sea/shore flows for all ratings. Another reason is that the Service will need to add about 2,000 enlisted billets to support a viable “agricultural tail”-the base of the personnel pyramid that is necessary to grow the Service’s more senior enlisted ranks. In addition, we believe that the Navy’s current manpower requirement plans are based on an overly optimistic assessment of the Service’s ability to cut billets from the shore establishment; we expect that a more realistic assessment adds about 2,000 Sailors to the minimum viable personnel inventory. Finally, several changes in the fleet plan that are being considered will increase manpower requirements by a few thousand.