Research for Military Strategy

Despite current political and socio-economic uncertainties, the Russian leaders continue to develop new concepts regarding the role and capabilities of the future Russian Navy. This study examines three likely parameters of future Russian naval development: current implementation of the 'reasonable sufficiency' concept, the Russian image of future war, and Russia's new military doctrine. On both the nuclear and conventional levels, the application of 'reasonable sufficiency' to future naval development continues to generate a significant degree of civil-military divergence. On the other hand, a strong civil-military consensus underlies Russian views on the role of naval forces in future war. Like their Soviet predecessors, Russian military and civilian experts view Operation Desert Storm as the paradigm of future war in strategy, operational art, and tactics. Finally, Russia's new military doctrine and surrounding discussions provide evidence regarding Russia's 'vital' national interests, threats to these interests, and the role of the Russian Navy in Russian national security policy.

This paper discusses opposing veiwpoints on Soviet military policy in Afghanistan. Principal areas of discussion include: (1) the decision-making behind the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan; (2) the impact of the Afghan war and Soviet attitudes toward their Afghan veterans; (3) the current status of the Soviet military; and (4) the future role of the Soviet military.

Most examinations of proliferation issues concern controlling the spread of weaponry; this report goes further to delve into the potential military responses to proliferation. The objectives of this report are to raise awareness of this evolving problem, examine trends in proliferation to give a broad overview of this issue, frame the issues in a manner conducive to thoughtful analysis, consider scenarios for involvement by the U.S., and suggest several possible U.S. responses.

This research contribution lays out a methodology for interpreting the Soviet literature dealing with military affairs. The following aspects are covered: the subject matter that normally yields the best evidence of Soviet intentions; the theoretical disciplines involved with this subject matter and their relationship to official channels; the problem of determining the truthfulness and authoritativeness of Soviet statements; and the rules of analysis in coping with their literature.