Research for military separation

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August 1, 2001
When the Navy's downsizing ended in the 1990s, undermanning in the fleet became evident. By the end of the decade, fewer than 90 percent of the enlisted billets were filled. Problems with recruiting, distributing, and retaining sailors all contributed to the undermanning difficulties. In response, the Navy fought to reverse the trend by instituting initiatives to alleviate attrition. As part of the Navy's efforts to increase manning through reduced attrition, the Assistant Deputy Chief of Naval Operations, Manpower and Personnel (N1B) asked CNA to analyze the causes of fleet attrition-that is, early separations among sailors who make it to a full-duty billet, both on shore and at sea. Because most fleet attrition occurs soon after arrival in the fleet, we focused on first term attrition. First, we studied the patterns of fleet attrition losses in the Navy. Then we investigated the causes of attrition and how those factors changed in the 1990s. We conducted an analysis of yearly cohort attrition for first-term sailors on both sea and shore duty. Then, restricting our analysis to sailors on surface ships, we explored how the deployment cycle influences attrition, Finally, because attrition is costly, we explored strategies aimed at reducing it and keeping it low.
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July 1, 2001
The Navy expects to enlist about 55,000 sailors each year in the near future, and faces the challenge of training and delivering these recruits to operational billets. Accordingly, policy-makers wish to monitor the fraction of recruits who complete training, as well as the time it takes them to reach the fleet. In this report, we track sailors "from street to fleet, " analyzing factors that influence attrition from the Navy during the period of initial skills training. A companion report describes street-to-fleet trends and focuses on the time it takes recruits to reach the fleet. The Director, Assessment Division (N81) requested this study as part of the Navy's Manpower and Personnel Integrated Warfare Architecture (IWAR). The IWAR is a planning vehicle that uses analyses to shape long-range goals and policies. This study examines prefleet attrition from the Navy; it does not investigate losses from the fleet, attrition from specific courses, or transitions between training programs. CNA conducted a regression analysis to define patterns in attrition as they relate to gender, rating, and training time.
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February 1, 2001
The Marine Corps has committed considerable resources to the development of the Total Force Data Warehouse (TFDW). This Oracle-based system allows Marine Corps analysts to look at the force historically and to do very detailed analysis of what it looks like today. A shortfall of the TFDW is that it cannot answer such "street-to-fleet" questions as: what enlisted recruit characteristics are associated with successful adaptation to the Marine Corps; and, what officer characteristics are associated with retention? The purpose of this Street-to-Fleet study was to identify the best historical data that could be found and to build accession-based files, for Marine Corps commissioned officer and enlisted personnel, organized by fiscal year of entry into the Marine Corps. In this volume of the final report, the Marine Corps attrition reasons (MCAR) and Marine Corps attrition interactive database (MCAID) databases for the enlisted personnel are described along with the procedures developed for updating them.
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February 1, 2001
CRM DOO03033.Al Documents the Marine Corps Commissioned Officer Accession Career (MCCOAC) file, an events-based file that combines information from several data sources to describe the street-to-fleet process. Explains the method of compilation, and presents some initial analyses. Contains an Appendix describing the MCCOAC file format.
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July 1, 2000
This briefing on attrition was presented to the Navy Human Resources Board of Directors in June 2000. While one of its purposes was to raise the awareness level of the attrition problem among the Navy's senior leadership, we concentrated on how the Navy can change its system so that the attrition issue is raised in importance at lower levels in the command structure, even when the senior leadership is focused on other issues. We organized our suggestions/recommendations into two categories-improving accountability within the system and incentives.
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