Research for Mathematical Models

The end of the Cold War has led to a major reexamination of the requirements fir medical personnel and other resources necessary to care for Department of Defense (DoD) beneficiaries. Despite large numbers of peacetime beneficiaries, the primary need for medical resources remains the wartime mission. During the Cold War, the requirement for wartime medical providers was high and could easily justify large numbers of active duty personnel. Today's defense guidance is based on fighting two major regional contingencies (MRCs), and the required number of medical providers has fallen sharply. Determining the number and types of medical resources needed to treat casualties of future conflicts is an important and complicated issue. To help shed light on the process of determining wartime medical requirements, N-931 asked CNA to examine the methods and models that are currently in use or may be used in the near future. The current process is in flux. The models used today are being changed. The use of one model was discontinued recently when the Joint Staff changed to a new command-and-control system. The Joint Staff has proposed a replacement, but the new model is still being developed and there is some concern about its adequacy in determining service medical requirements. In this memorandum, we examine the current and proposed theater-level requirements models.

This paper presents and applies a methodology for estimating the cost of recruiting individuals with alternative distributions of Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) scores. The methodology takes account of the key institutional features of the recruiting process, including recruiter time allocation and procedural guidelines. The method is used to estimate the costs of different recruit-aptitude distributions, using data on applicants and accessions for all of the services.

The main objective of this study is to identify an improved method for allocating Marine Corps recruiter support funds to the districts. This research memorandum describes a way to account for variation in the average support cost across the Marine Corps recruiting districts. Using FY 1989 and 1990 data, certain variables are found to explain recruiting station support funding costs. Model estimates are made of FY 1992 district support funding requirements. In addition, estimates are made of support cost savings from proposed station consolidations.

This paper presents a mathematical model for two purposes. First, it extends the theoretical analysis of annual contracting to the more general case of uncertainty as to the magnitude of year-two procurement, as opposed simply to its cancellation. The second is to assign parameter values having at least some empirical grounding to the Utgoff-Thaler model, thereby providing a basis for assessing quantitatively the consequences of the theoretical results for both annual and multiyear contracting.