Research for Marketing

Gaming is a tool that the military has used with great success to gain insights into the feasibility of alternative strategies or tactics before actually putting one into practice. Although gaming does not provide real answers, it can provide insights into strategic 'what if' questions. The validity of the insights gained is largely a function of the reality designed into the game and the willingness of the players to immerse themselves in the play. The Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) asked CNA to design a game based on a business sector undergoing change in response to the defense drawdown. The shipbuilding industry was chosen because (1) it is a critical business sector for U.S. economic and military security, (2) it is facing major near-term strategic and tactical decisions that will define its future, and (3) it could be gamed with a high degree of realism. The purpose of the game was to bring together important leaders from government and industry to exchange information and gain insights. Specifically, we wanted to help industry and government leaders answer the following questions: (a) How can the U.S. shipbuilding industry compete in the global market? and (b) What technologies enhance or promote U.S. competitiveness in this market? The game was designed with these objectives in mind. This research memorandum describes the game design and the game play, and provides a summary of the panel discussions, the shipyard play, and the lessons learned.

This report examines two specific reasons why domestic steel retains most of the market, even though imports usually cost less.

This paper provides an overview of the military and economic importance of the Persian Gulf region to the United States and the U.S.'s dependence on foreign oil imports.

This paper presents an approach for analysis and estimation of dynamic market structures with rational expectations. Certainty equivalence is maintained and aggregate behavior represented by linear equations with some expected prices as arguments. Conditions imposed by the market structure are solved for an equilibrium, fixed point, price sequence. In this framework prices, current and expected, are linear functions of exogenous values and elements of a state vector. The structure poses an interesting estimation problem and suggests effective estimation procedures. Results for an application to the broiler chicken market using three years of weekly data are discussed.