Research for Manpower Requirements
September 1, 2006
In building POM programs to meet future mission requirements, Navy force planners evaluate numerous force structure alternatives. Two key considerations in evaluating these alternatives are manpower requirements and costs. The Director of Total Force Programming and Manpower (N12) is responsible for determining the manpower requirements and costs of each alternative. Doing this using the current manpower database systems and tools, however, is a laborious, time-intensive process. To better support manpower planning and programming efforts, N12 needs an analytical tool that can quickly determine the manpower implications of force structure changes. To meet this need, CNA developed the Billet Analysis Tool (BAT). BAT is a Microsoft Access application that uses data from the Navy’s Total Force Manpower Management System (TFMMS) to determine the manpower implications of changes to the Navy’s force structure, shore/support infrastructure, and manning level policies. It calculates, for a user-defined scenario, the change in billet requirements and authorizations for each component of the total force: active duty, full-time support (FTS), Selected Reserve (SELRES), and government civilians. Results can be aggregated and displayed at various levels of detail down to the rating/designator and paygrade levels. The tool also calculates manpower costs using both programming and composite cost rates.
Read More
March 1, 2002
Abstract: D5206 The Navy determines the number of sailors it needs on board ships through a complex and demanding process. To those not directly involved, it is a black box. This study describes the Navy's methods and compares them to practices used by private-sector firms. It identifies assumptions that drive the number of people needed, or "manpower requirements," and quantifies the impact of those assumptions on billets and costs. The study concludes that the Navy's manpower requirements process is thorough, accountable, and meets the Navy's stated goals. However, it does not adequately consider manning alternatives. In setting requirements, the Navy takes technology as given and uses decades-old assumptions about work hours, labor productivity, and the paygrade mix of the crew. Such assumptions, which are "hard-wired" into the Navy's requirements computation model, are costly and merit revalidation. Other problems include limited cost incentives and a lack of performance metrics with which to assess different manning configurations. The study recommends that the Navy (a) make the costs (and benefits) of requirements more visible (b) shift the focus from workload validation toward innovation and improvement; and (c) charge an agent or organization with identifying avenues for manpower savings, through methodological, technological, or organizational changes.
Read More
| Download Report
August 1, 2001
When the Navy's downsizing ended in the 1990s, undermanning in the fleet became evident. By the end of the decade, fewer than 90 percent of the enlisted billets were filled. Problems with recruiting, distributing, and retaining sailors all contributed to the undermanning difficulties. In response, the Navy fought to reverse the trend by instituting initiatives to alleviate attrition. As part of the Navy's efforts to increase manning through reduced attrition, the Assistant Deputy Chief of Naval Operations, Manpower and Personnel (N1B) asked CNA to analyze the causes of fleet attrition-that is, early separations among sailors who make it to a full-duty billet, both on shore and at sea. Because most fleet attrition occurs soon after arrival in the fleet, we focused on first term attrition. First, we studied the patterns of fleet attrition losses in the Navy. Then we investigated the causes of attrition and how those factors changed in the 1990s. We conducted an analysis of yearly cohort attrition for first-term sailors on both sea and shore duty. Then, restricting our analysis to sailors on surface ships, we explored how the deployment cycle influences attrition, Finally, because attrition is costly, we explored strategies aimed at reducing it and keeping it low.
Read More
| Download Report
October 1, 1997
This annotated briefing analyzes the costs and benefits of aging the Navy's enlisted force to form recommendations about future accession levels and retention strategy. 'Aging the force' means boosting retention to get a higher distribution of experience in the enlisted force, not delaying sailors' retirement. The costs of aging the force are the costs of buying higher retention plus the higher pay and benefits that more senior sailors receive. The benefits of aging the force are recruiting and training savings from fewer accessions plus the higher fleet readiness that comes with more experienced sailors. The analysis, including all aged-force scenarios, is a steady-state analysis; accession levels were developed to support the expected force for 2005 and beyond. By choosing and adopting its accession goals as soon as possible, the Navy can avooid creating either a future undersupply or a future oversupply of sailors with a given length of service (LOS).
Read More
| Download Report
May 1, 1996
In a period of shrinking resource, the Navy is searching for ways to reduce the costs of operating and supporting its forces. Those savings can be used to help recapitalize the Navy as the turn of the century approaches. Past efforts at reducing support costs have often focused on outsourcing or privatizing work that can be done commercially. Evidence from past research indicates that savings are available form outsourcing work and from public-private competitions. The evidence indicates that the pressure of competition, among private sector firms and between government activities and the private sector, is the source of those savings. In the Program Objectives Memorandum (POM) process, resource sponsors pay a price for each billet they authorize. The Navy has begun to include more explicit personnel costs in the POM process. This paper considers the potential for how that cost information may improve manpower resource decisions and examines broader decision-making frameworks as well.
Read More
February 1, 1993
This research memorandum completes the Managing the Enlisted Marine Corps in the 1990s Study. It summarizes study analyses, referring the reader to more detailed papers if more information is required.
Read More
| Download Report
September 1, 1989
One of the goals of the Enlisted Force Management Integration project is to study the effect on the force structure of changes in Navy policies. Requirements data are necessary both for creating a model of force structure and for modeling changes in force policy. The Enlisted Billet File is the major source of data on requirements for Navy enlisted personnel. This paper describes a number of the data elements on the file. Its purpose is to identify those data elements that are potentially useful for the project.
Read More
| Download Report
December 1, 1988
During the derivation of manpower requirements and personnel management policies, it is quite possible to specify a pay grade profile, longevity distribution, and promotion policy that are inconsistent and cannot be simultaneously satisfied. This research memorandum describes precise conditions under which particular specifications of pay grade structure, longevity, and promotion policy lead to an executable force structure. In particular, it is shown that a too stringent 'up or out' policy leads to an unexecutable force structure.
Read More
| Download Report
July 1, 1988
This research memorandum describes the career paths for Surface Warfare Officers (SWOs) during their first eight years of active duty. Longitudinal history files were created for each of four year groups and were then used to determine summary statistics for the movement of officers into and out of the SWO community, attainment of SWO qualifications, and selection for department head.
Read More
| Download Report
May 1, 1988
This analysis develops and estimates a model of retention during the first year of affiliation in the Selected Reserve. Estimates of the effects of pay and personal characteristics are provided for 11 Navy rating groups. The results should be useful for forecasting Selected Reserve manpower levels and for evaluating the effects of affiliation and retention bonuses.
Read More
| Download Report
Follow CNA on
© 2013 CNA. All Rights Reserved.
4825 Mark Center Drive, Alexandria, VA 22311 | 703.824.2000 | Directions | Site Map