Research for Linear Programming

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between pay and retention during the All Volunteer Force era. The report also derives estimates of the relationship between pay at one decision point and retention at future decision points.

Two models are developed. One is an aggregate model based on a simplified force structure and steady-state assumption; the other is an expanded model based on a more detailed dynamic simulation of personnel flows in a rating or detailing community.

This analysis develops a methodology for comparing forecasting models and examines in detail the ability of available attrition/ success models to adequately predict the service performance of nongraduate Marines. Available models will almost always select graduates over nongraduates; therefore, it is possible that these models cannot optimally select from among the remaining non-graduates - some of whom the Marine Corps will be forced to accept. The data was disaggregated and the attrition of graduates and nongraduates was examined separately. The results of this analysis indicate that using a separate attrition/success model developed especially for non-graduates will not significantly improve the accuracy and reliability of prediction. The conclusion, therefore, is that existing models, which deal with an aggregated population, are both appropriate and sufficient.

This paper analyzes the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Gulf of Tonkin Incident. A crisis decision model is presented to explain the sequential behavior in these cases.