Research for Labor Market
July 1, 2001
Since the onset of the volunteer military almost 30 years ago (1973), the American full-time workforce has become more diverse, and the active-duty military reflects that diversity. This paper considers comparisons of full-time, military-age (18 to 44 years) civilian workers and active-duty military personnel in 1970 and 2000. In that 30-year period, percentages of civilian workers changed from 89 to 70 percent white, from 10 to 12 percent black, and from 1 to 18 percent other racial categories. The percentage of women in the civilian workforce rose from 29 to 41 percent. Percentage differences in the active-duty military population between 1970 and 2000 are comparable: from 83 to 65 percent white, from 11 to 20 percent black, and from 6 to 14 percent other racial/ethnic backgrounds. The percentage of women in the military increased from 2 to 15 percent. This research memorandum begins with a discussion of this increased diversity with the Gates Commission and the beginning of the all-volunteer force, and of how representative of society the all-volunteer force is today.
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January 1, 2001
The Navy plans to recruit more than 55,000 youth into its active enlisted force each year for the foreseeable future. However, decision-makers fear that recruiting difficulties will continue and that this goal-recently revised downward from 58,000-is not feasible. The Integrated Warfare Architectures (IWARs) are a part of the Navy's annual planning process. This year's Manpower and Personnel IWAR focuses on increasing retention and the appeal of naval service. As part of this effort, N813 asked CNA to describe and evaluate alternative retention available to the Navy.
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April 1, 1996
From FY 1992 to FY 1994, the Navy's Zone B retention rate for enlisted personnel fell by 13 percentage points. Zone B refers to sailors in their seventh to tenth year of service. The Center for Navy Analyses studied this drop in retention and found that the FY 1994 rate was about 5 percentage points below the rate projected in the post-drawdown steady state. The study also concluded that Navy drawdown policies could explain 8 percentage points of the 13-point decline in retention seen between FY 1992 and FY 1994. Of those 8 points, 2.4 were attributed to monetary separation incentives. However, the effects of any Navy policy are difficult to pinpoint because of the large number of factors at play that also affect retention. For example, the drawdown coincided with an upturn in the civilian economy, which may have also contributed to the drop in retention from FY 1992 to FY 1994.
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November 1, 1992
This paper presents and applies a methodology for estimating the cost of recruiting individuals with alternative distributions of Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) scores. The methodology takes account of the key institutional features of the recruiting process, including recruiter time allocation and procedural guidelines. The method is used to estimate the costs of different recruit-aptitude distributions, using data on applicants and accessions for all of the services.
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May 1, 1988
How can Commander, Navy Recruiting Command, manage enlisted recruiters more cost effectively to provide the needed quantity and quality of recruits? The Recruiting Resources and Policies Study addressed this question by examining geographic variation in enlistment goals, recruit production, and recruiter incentives. This research memorandum summarizes the study and highlights the major policy implications.
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December 1, 1986
This paper analyzes the factors that may influence the decision of first-term enlisted Navy veterans to join the Selected Reserve. A model of the determinants of affiliation is developed and estimated using data on active Navy separations and Reserve accessions from 1979 to 1985. Unique features of the model and estimation are that they combine all forms of pay into one variable, incorporate demand constraints, adjust for simultaneity between bonus eligibility and affiliation rates, and use a more comprehensive data set than has been available before. Affiliation is found to depend on Reserve pay, unemployment rates, geographic area, race, sex, paygrade, and Navy rating.
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April 1, 1984
This report quantifies the link between civilian job growth and military retention for Navy enlisted personnel. The magnitude of this effect is identified--at both the first and second re-enlistment decision points--for highly technical ratings and for ratings which are not highly technical. The effect that future civilian job growth will have on the chances that Navy personnel will reenlist or leave is then projected, using occupational forecasts for the next decade provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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March 1, 1984
This paper examines the sources and policy implications of the sparsity of part-time work among older workers. See also 55 000397 and appendices to 55 000396.
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October 1, 1983
Examines the impact of changing social, economic, and demographic factors on the manpower market, evaluates the cost effectiveness of compensation policies for meeting requirements; suggests ways to measure personnel productivity; and develops policy options for balancing enlisted manpower requirements and resources.
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September 1, 1983
This paper examines the sources and policy implications of the sparsity of part-time work among older workers. See also 55 000396.
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