Research for Kill Probabilities

Syndicate content
A MARKOV APPROACH TO LARGE MISSILE ATTACKS
February 1, 1981
This paper calculates the distribution of the number of survivors of a set number of attacks with given parameters, for various missile-allocation situations, and the expected number of missiles fired. The emphasis is on eliminating the complexity arising from a large number of missiles attacking simultaneously. Computer programs for these calculations are presented in Appendix A.
Read More | Download Report
THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF AN INTERRUPTION IN UNITED STATES PETROLEUM IMPORTS, 1975 THRU 2000
December 1, 1978
This paper estimates U.S. dependence on foreign oil for the period 1975 through 2000 and examines the economic effect on the U.S. of an interruption of this oil.
Read More | Download Report
THE THEORETICAL BASIS OF THE CODE 50 NUCLEAR EXCHANGE MODEL
June 1, 1974
The Code 50 Nuclear Exchange Model is a war game model produced by the LAMBDA Corporation. This research contribution derives and explains the basic mathematical models used in the computer programs of that model, including models of missile and bomber penetration as well as damage calculation, weapon allocation, and kill probability models. Model implementation and integration into the Code 50 program are also demonstrated.
Read More | Download Report
VALIDATION OF COMBAT MODELS AGAINST HISTORICAL DATA
June 1, 1974
This paper briefly discusses the problems of model validation when dealing with historical data and describes the effort to validate a Tactical Warfare Simulation Program using data from the 1950-53 Korean War.
Read More | Download Report