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Indonesia's Political Evolution Over the Next 5-10 Years
September 1, 2002
Abstract:D6866 Although the initial burst of reformist energy that followed Soeharto's fall in 1998 has largely dissipated, the long-term prognosis for Indonesia remains basically positive. Expectations for democratic reform should be kept modest for the foreseeable future. President Megawati Sukarnoputri's opponents in the 2004 elections do not have strong political bases, and she appears likely to win re-election, but will probably govern with a shaky coalition. Political and government institutions, the judicial system, the police, and political parties are weak, and will gain strength only slowly. Parliament is unable to deal with more than a fraction of the legislation before it. The armed forces are not likely to take over, but will exercise considerable influence despite their formal removal from politics. Islamic-agenda political parties are divided: they may win up to 20% of the vote, but are not likely to coalesce around a single leader. The resilience of the Indonesian people is likely to prevent popular anger at government's failings from exploding.
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Islam in Indonesia's Political Future
September 1, 2002
Indonesia, the largest Muslim-majority country in the world, has experienced an unprecedented Islamic resurgence since the 1980s, as more Indonesians displayed their piety publicly and became more religiously observant. The predominant disposition among Muslims remained moderate and tolerant, committed to a pluralist government and to democracy. Beginning in the 1990s, however, former President Soeharto courted extremist Muslim groups to protect his power base. After his fall in 1998, hardline Islamists, including paramilitary militias, gained a level of influence far greater than their numbers would warrant, and today represent a serious challenge to the stability of Indonesia and to U.S. interests. They are not likely to gain power through elections, but will be able to influence some government policies and actions. Among the extremists, a relatively small number of Muslims, many of Yemeni ancestry, are prime candidates for al Qaeda links. U.S. assistance in critical areas, including media skills and outreach, to the two mainstream Islamic mass organizations can help the moderate mainstream regain its voice and influence
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