Research for Investment Strategy

Over the coming years, the U.S. military, a significant employer and trainer of young people, will continue its post-Cold War drawdown. During the reshaping of the military, the following question arises: Is it possible to reinvest some of these important resources to strengthen youth? The CNA Corporation has examined various aspects of this question during the past two years. During the first year of our work, we established a framework for assessing local possibilities for 'Strategic Reinvestment to Strengthen Youth'--redirecting military resources in the communities surrounding military bases. We were then sponsored by the Navy to apply this work in specific places that had bases targeted for closure. The objective of this second year of research was to examine the entire range of options for connecting military resources with youth in these communities. The longer range thinking was that, if this assessment process produced results valuable in localities where the Navy is now significantly decreasing its presence, it could be adapted for wider use following the 1995 base closure announcements. The communities of Oakland/Alameda, California were designated for the full assessment. We limited our detailed data-collection effort to those closing Navy installations and the surrounding communities that are closest to the Oakland/Alameda area. In this research memorandum, one of a series of four documents covering specific components of this project, we look at the political context of defense conversion planning

In this research memorandum, we assess the interest of youth service organizations in gaining access to, or acquiring, resources that may become available as a result of military base closures. The assessment was carried out in the San Francisco Bay Area from November 1993 through July 1994, in tandem with two other assessments: one of organizations providing services to young people, and one of local bases scheduled for closure. The overall study was commissioned by the Navy to test and refine a conceptual framework developed by The CNA Corporation for identifying possibilities for redistributing base resources to benefit young people, or, as it came to be known, Strategic Reinvestment to Strengthen Youth. See also CRMs 94-154, 94-157, and 94-159.

As our Nation's military continues to draw down and reshape itself, important resources can be strategically reinvested to strengthen youth. These resources include personnel, equipment, and facilities. The CNA Corporation examined the potential use of these resources within its Veterans Transition and Defense conversion project which was completed in 1993. This preliminary study produced the framework for an assessment process designed to match military resources with the needs of youth and their communities. Admiral William A. Owens (who at the time was Deputy Chief of Naval Operations, Resources, Warfare Requirements, and Assessments) sponsored a follow-up research project in which we were asked to apply our preliminary work in communities where the Navy has had a long-standing presence but is now preparing to reduce that presence by closing bases. He saw these closures, while initially devastating in economic terms, as an opportunity for the Navy and the country as a whole to help strengthen youth. Specifically, he was concerned that not enough was being done to help young people become better citizens. The analysis plan called for a full application of the assessment process in Oakland/Alameda and a more limited effort in the Charleston, South Carolina area. The Charleston effort, which we describe here, was to be done quickly and to focus on facilities only.

This paper, undertaken as part of CNA's Quo Vadis II project, examines alternative statistical models for the cumulative distribution of cost and time of Navy Research and Development (R&D) projects.