Research for International Trade

Syndicate content
Maritime Economic Interests & the Sea Lines of Communication Through the South China Sea: The Value of Trade in Southeast Asia
March 1, 1996
The U.S. Navy has long been assigned the mission of helping to protect the Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) of Southeast Asia. During the Cold War, the mission was viewed in strategic military terms: the U.S. needed to be able to move military supplies through the region in crises, and deny the SLOCs to the Soviets. Now that the Soviet threat has diminished, what national economic interests are at stake? In early 1995, Secretary of State Christopher issued a warning to the nations quarreling over the Spratly Islands. The U.S. does not take sides in this dispute, but will not accept the disruption of trade passing through the South China Sea. This study shows that the American position is based on direct national economic interest, as well as quasi-altruistic concern for the welfare of other nations.
Read More | Download Report
Study Methodology of Value of Maritime Trade in Southeast Asia
September 1, 1994
This document consists of a collection of papers generated by the work in progress of our study, 'Value of Maritime Trade in Southeast Asia.' This project for N51 examines the economic value of maritime trade through the Southeast Asian straits, given the USN mission to ensure passage through these crucial waterways. The purpose of this document is to acquaint our colleagues with our efforts so they can participate in and contribute to our discussion and help improve the final result. This overview simply introduces the reader to the collection of working papers. First, we offer a few paragraphs on the motivation for our investigations, after which we give a brief summary of our approach. Second, we list the working documents of the appendixes, describing how they originated as the study progressed. Finally, we attach the collection of presentations, memos, and planning documents that currently make up the study's paper trail.
Read More | Download Report
The USSR and the Pacific Century
July 1, 1989
Recent Soviet press statements reflect a growing conviction that the emerging 'Pacific Century' has important implications for the USSR. While seemingly downgrading the military component of Soviet Far East presence, Soviet leaders are contemplating various unprecedented measures. Among them are the creation of 'free economic zones' and the opening of several ports, including Vladivostok. This research memorandum assesses the status of these developments, discusses some of their implications, and examines the possible nature of economic activity in the zones and potential sites for them. Also briefly noted are new trends in Soviet economic thinking.
Read More | Download Report
THE PRICE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN DOMESTIC AND IMPORTED STEEL
May 1, 1983
This report examines two specific reasons why domestic steel retains most of the market, even though imports usually cost less.
Read More
The Persian Gulf and the National Interest
March 1, 1982
This paper provides an overview of the military and economic importance of the Persian Gulf region to the United States and the U.S.'s dependence on foreign oil imports.
Read More | Download Report
THE AVAILABILITY OF ADMINISTRATIVE DATA TO ANALYZE TRADE ADJUSTMENT ASSISTANCE AND DISPLACEMENT
February 1, 1982
This report presents information about the availability of state unemployment insurance (UI) administrative data. In particular, the project is aimed at assessing the feasibility of using such data to monitor the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program of the U.S. Department of Labor. The report discusses the TAA program and the types of data sets necessary for an evaluation of the effects of TAA. An overview of the kinds of data routinely maintained by state UI offices is presented followed by a closer examination of data collected by 12 states that have the most potentially useful data. In a number of these states, sufficient data already exist to undertake an examination of the TAA program.
Read More | Download Report
THE SIMULTANEOUS DETERMINATION OF INCOME AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE UNITED STATES-MEXICO BORDER REGION ECONOMIES
October 1, 1981
This paper expands upon a model developed by Ladman to provide a vehicle to explain not only the historical development of the border area economy, but also to provide a useful instrument to predict the impact of changes in economic activity in the two-nation region.
Read More | Download Report
DEPENDENCE, RISK, AND VULNERABILITY
July 1, 1981
This paper provides a framework that conceives vulnerability as a function of both dependence and the risk that hurt will be imposed. Included is an approach for reducing vulnerability.
Read More | Download Report
THE EFFECT OF IMPORTS ON EMPLOYMENT UNDER RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS
May 1, 1981
This paper focuses on imports as a distinct cause of output change. It tests the hypothesis that employment reacts more rapidly to output changes when they are due to changes in imports than when they are due to the business cycle or other influences.
Read More | Download Report
LABOR ADJUSTMENT TO IMPORTS UNDER RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS
March 1, 1981
The effects of imports on industry employment are often determined through the use of input-output studies. Input-output assumes that imports cause proportional and immediate effects on industry employment. Increases in imports will therefore be expected to cause large, sudden decreases in employment. The problem arises, however, that actual events are often poorly predicted by the input-output model. To better predict the effects of imports on employment, a model of the demand for labor was developed that allowed for gradual adjustment in employment to perceived changes in output, where these changes arise either from cyclical factors or an increase in competing imports. What is expected to be produced in the future was felt to be an important determinant of current employment needs and therefore was explicitly included in the labor demand model. According to our findings, expectations of future output are important determinants of industry employment demand in the majority of industries studied. Perhaps, more surprisingly, imports induce a slower adjustment in employment than does an equivalent change in GNP, the measure used to represent cyclical factors. Our results suggest input-output studies overestimate the effects of competing imports on employment in the industry.
Read More | Download Report