Research for International Relations
January 1, 2002
CNAC and its Russian counterpart, ISKRAN, held their 15th seminar here at CNAC on 7 December 2001. This is a report of that seminar. The report is also based on other discussions the Russian visitors had in the Washington area, including with Deputy Secretary of State Armitage and Vice Admiral Keating, Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Plans, Policy and Operations. The CNAC program dates back to the fall of 1990, when we invited Andrey Kokoshin, among others, to the CNAC Annual Conference, to the fall of 1991, when a CNAC group took its first trip to Moscow, and the spring of 1992, when the first CNAC-ISKRAN seminar was held, here in Washington. The discussions focused on new opportunities for Russian American relations and for NATO-Russian cooperation following September 11, following President Putin's initiative to support the United States on September 24, and following the Bush-Putin summit meeting in November ("the Crawford Summit"). These discussions stood in some contrast to the discussions we held in Moscow in July 2001. Then there was an almost complete obsession among our Russian interlocutors, with the impending demise of the ABM treaty, and with it, as they said, the end of strategic stability. There was also a discussion during the seminar on whether the last decade had seen a great deal of progress in the improvement of U.S.-Russian relations or was a time of wasted opportunities during which the chances for a real Russian-American partnership, especially in matters of security, were squandered.
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July 1, 2001
CNAC has had a program of seminars with its Russian counterparts since 1991. We have discussed a range of issues, from strategic nuclear matters to naval cooperation. For the seminar we are planning in Russia in the summer or fall of 2001, one of the prime agenda items will be the long-term future of the relation of Russia to European security (assuming the United States has a long-term future relation in Europe as well). As part of our preparations for the seminar, we organized a workshop to discuss the issues of Russia and European security. It was held at CNA on 13 April 2001. The format of the workshop involved five speakers, each addressing one of five scenarios chosen to raise a full range of issues. The scenarios, described in this paper, are: 1) NATO expansion to Russia's borders; 2) bringing Russia into NATO; 3) Russia and Europe gradually converging in matters of security; 4) Europe creates a security infrastructure separate from U.S. and from Russia; and 5) drift in European security arrangements.
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February 1, 2000
The Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) and the Institute for USA and Canada Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ISKRAN) held the eleventh in a series of seminars in December of 1998. Topics included contemporary international situation as perceived by both countries, strategic stability under contemporary conditions, and Russian problems with the Far East and Central Asia. Discussions were held in Moscow on relations between the American and Russian Navies, Russian foreign policy and defense reform, arms control and Russian arms sales. A list of seminar participants is also included in this report.
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August 1, 1998
This report is the product of a CNA self-initiated project to explore the evolution of the notions of military deterrence and influence in the new era after the Cold War. Deterrence during the Cold War was global, focused on the Soviet Union and on nuclear balances and threats; however, a new perspective on deterrence is needed in this new era. The report concludes that the task of military deterrence and influence in the post-Cold War period is to contribute to a stable world system so that the economic world can function and prosper. The role of military forces is to foster the stability in which economies can thrive. U.S. military forces do this by organizing and extending both bilateral relations with key countries and sustaining and extending broad collective security arrangements, and by walling off the few rogues that aspire to mount aggressions against their neighbors.
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May 1, 1996
The Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) and the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) held a workshop in Washington, DC, from December 4 to 6, 1995, to examine the prospects for U.S. - Korean naval relations in the year 2010. For purposes of analysis, the participants assumed the possibility of Korean unification over the next ten to 15 years. The purpose of the workshop was to investigate potential threats in the region in 2010, identify the naval missions these threats imply, identify non-threat-related missions, and project the capabilities required to perform those missions.
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April 1, 1996
In response to a request from the Commander in Chief, Atlantic Fleet (CINCLANTFLT), for options regarding hemisphere naval cooperation, CNA conducted a study of the mid- and long-range importance of Latin America for U.S. Navy and CINCLANTFLT strategic planning. The study considered the full range of navy-to-navy relations and projected developments in light of the changing international security environment, new roles and missions, and the roles that Latin Americans can play within U.S. Navy plans. We developed a framework for evaluating the U.S. Navy's cooperative programs with Latin America in terms of their scope and impact on a continuum of U.S. national security objectives that range from goodwill through broad foreign policy objectives, to national defense goals, and specific military goals. We examined the evolving Latin American national security environment, developed a typology of naval roles and missions, and projected force structure to the year 2000. Finally, we cataloged the U.S. Navy's programs, evaluated their scope and impact, and assessed their contribution to national security goals.
March 1, 1996
This research memorandum is part of a study sponsored by the Commander, Seventh Fleet, to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. The study attempts to identify the most probable evolutionary trends in the APR out to 2010, and to derive implications for U.S. forces, particularly the Navy. This memorandum identifies these trends for Japan. The implications for the forces and for the Navy are contained in the final report for this project. The analysis strongly suggests the importance of a stable, credible U.S. presence in Japan in reinforcing Japan s current, yet potentially problematic, pro-U.S. orientation. The U.S. presence will significantly influence Japan' s defense policies because it will determine the credibility of broad U.S. nuclear and other security guarantees to Japan. Such a presence cannot be taken for granted 15 years hence.
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January 1, 1996
This memorandum is the final report of a study sponsored by Commander, Seventh Fleet, to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. The primary issues were how the fleet's purposes and objectives will change between now and 2010, and what the now-identifiable trends imply for fleet operations, problems, and opportunities. In response, we identified the most probable evolutionary trends in the APR out to 2010 and derived implications for U.S. forces, and in particular the Navy. For purposes of this study, the APR corresponds to the Seventh Fleet's area of operations - that is, roughly from Kamchatka to the Indian frontier with Pakistan. We analyzed the effects that these trends would have on the APR, projected effects of such trends on U.S. national interests and objectives, and attempted to derive the implications of identifiable national and transnational trends for defense policies and programs, including but not confined to the policies and programs of the naval services.
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February 1, 1995
The Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, Plans, Policy and Operations asked the Center for Naval Analyses to evaluate Argentine naval strategy, its political and economic sustainability, its impact on other key nations in South America, and the implications for U.S. naval relations with countries of the Southern Cone. Thus, we examined in-depth the political-military environment in Argentina, Brazil, and Chile--the three naval powers of the Southern Cone. The study considers the impact of civilian leadership on the Southern Cone armed forces, and navies in particular. It documents the themes of defense policies evolving within the region, examines broad political support for the armed forces in general, and gives special attention to navy roles and missions. The study also recommends approaches for the U.S. Navy in developing a long-term strategy toward the Southern Cone and Latin America.
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February 1, 1995
In October 1994, the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) and the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) cosponsored a workshop in Seoul, Republic of Korea (ROK), to examine the prospects for United States -- Korean naval relations over the next ten to 15 years. Navy and Marine Corps specialists, Asia defense analysts, and scholars of Korea attended the meeting, as did government representatives from both countries. The purpose of the conference was a candid exchange of views on the potential significance and nature of naval cooperation between the two countries from the present to the early decades of the 21st century.
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