Research for International Diplomacy

This research memorandum is part of a study sponsored by the Commander, Seventh Fleet, to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. The study attempts to identify the most probable evolutionary trends in the APR out to 2010, and to derive implications for U.S. forces, particularly the Navy. This memorandum identifies these trends for Japan. The implications for the forces and for the Navy are contained in the final report for this project. The analysis strongly suggests the importance of a stable, credible U.S. presence in Japan in reinforcing Japan s current, yet potentially problematic, pro-U.S. orientation. The U.S. presence will significantly influence Japan' s defense policies because it will determine the credibility of broad U.S. nuclear and other security guarantees to Japan. Such a presence cannot be taken for granted 15 years hence.

This memorandum is the final report of a study sponsored by Commander, Seventh Fleet, to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. The primary issues were how the fleet's purposes and objectives will change between now and 2010, and what the now-identifiable trends imply for fleet operations, problems, and opportunities. In response, we identified the most probable evolutionary trends in the APR out to 2010 and derived implications for U.S. forces, and in particular the Navy. For purposes of this study, the APR corresponds to the Seventh Fleet's area of operations - that is, roughly from Kamchatka to the Indian frontier with Pakistan. We analyzed the effects that these trends would have on the APR, projected effects of such trends on U.S. national interests and objectives, and attempted to derive the implications of identifiable national and transnational trends for defense policies and programs, including but not confined to the policies and programs of the naval services.

The CNA Context of Military Intervention (CMI) Project was sponsored by the Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Plans, Policy, and Operation to help provide insight into the debate over the use of U.S. military forces in American foreign policy. This concept paper was prepared for participants in the CMI Seminar Series, which will examine this debate with prominent former members of the U.S. Government, along with experts from the military services, the media, and academia. The purpose of this paper is to define some of the issues and to provoke thought. Some case studies, which will be used as reference points in the seminars, are also outlined.

This research memorandum is one element of a comprehensive examination by CNA of the evolving Russian Navy for the Office of Naval Intelligence. It examines the likely paths of Russian foreign policy as the country moves into the 21st century and suggests that Russia's ability to conduct foreign policy in the future will be limited by the extent to which the nation advances in its ongoing economic and political reforms. The more successful the reforms, the greater will be Russia's capacity for an influential and vigorous foreign policy. In contrast to the communist period, the size and prominence of Russia's military will be inversely related to the scope of its foreign policy, i.e., the more activist Russia's foreign policy is, the more subordinate the military component will be in relation to other foreign policy resources. Thus, a militarized foreign policy will signal a failed domestic reform process and a weakened Russian state.