Research for Insurgency

Indonesia's ability to deal with separatist pressures in Aceh and Papua is limited by weaknesses of leadership, vision, and institutional development. Even so, Indonesia is not likely to disintegrate. Policy toward separatist movements lacks coherence and consistency. Neither the insurgents nor the government appear able to achieve their goals through military action. Stalemate could lead to a quagmire for government troops, particularly in Aceh. Both the independence movement and the armed forces in that province have been responsible for a level of violence that compares with the worst periods in the 1990s. The government under President Megawati appears to be heading toward a renewed effort at a military solution, although talks with the insurgents continue. The separatist movement in Papua is weaker and poorly armed. Papuan leaders have united in a "Presidium" with which the government could negotiate, although the murder of a Papuan leader in November 2001-reportedly by army elements-has undercut the political track. Effective implementations of special autonomy laws for both regions could, over time, result in willing continuation of these territories as parts of Indonesia. The United States has only a limited ability to foster solutions in Aceh and Papua.