Research for Histories

This paper traces the history of the Baghdad Railway from its conception in 1888 to the beginning of WW I. It shows how important the Railway was in the political, economic, and diplomatic events which led to WW I.

This paper provides a brief description of the problems facing any analysis of Soviet intentions. The context in which the actions under examination took place is sketched out. A review of the course of events in Afghanistan and the role apparently played by the Soviets there is provided. Subsequently, the motivations judged most likely to have precipitated the invasion are outlined. A brief treatment of some of the implications of this conclusion is included and a listing and evaluation of other, less plausible explanations of the Soviet decision to invade are appended.

This paper draws on the patterns of U.S. overseas cruising between 1869 and 1897 to validate the concept of 'informal empire', proposed by historians.

This study describes two stochastic models for evaluating air combat maneuvering (ACM) engagements. The Maneuver Conversion Model is applicable to engagements where a successful outcome is determined primarily by maneuvering effectiveness of the combatants. In this model, the events of air-to-air engagements are assumed to behave as a semi-Markov process with various absorbing states. The Firing Sequence Model is intended for analysis of engagements where a successful outcome depends on aircrew ability to capitalize on weapon performance. This model also assumes a Markov process, but analyzes test-range data as tabulations of weapon-firing incidents for each engagement. Common measures of effectiveness, such as the probability of achieving first weapon-firing opportunity and the expected exchange ratio, may be used in both models to estimate ACM performance. Volume I presents the analytic methodologies for both models, and provides under CNO Project P/V2 (Battle Cry), and illustrates the Maneuver Conversion Model methodology.