Research for Game Theory

Syndicate content
Wargame-Creation Skills and the Wargame Construction Kit
December 1, 2004
The U.S. Naval War College (NWC) is developing an elective course on wargaming theory and practice, the first session of which will be in the fall of 2002. This course is designed to elicit ideas for the advancement of the art and science of wargaming, particularly elements of wargaming that address current operational problems. The NWC asked CNA to support their development of this course by analyzing the skills important for creating wargames, and comparing those skills to the training content of the elective course. In addition, they asked us to develop a wargame construction kit (WCK) for use in the course. This kit was intended to provide students with a baseline and framework for practical exploration of the processes of creating wargames. Our analysis of the skills associated with the creation of wargames identified six critical skills: perspective, interpretation, research, analysis, creativity, and asking questions. This report also characterizes the different levels of skills that wargame creators might possess. The Wargame Construction Kit (WCK), included in this paper, has the potential to play a useful role in the exploration of wargame concepts and how to implement them practically. The WCK was designed as an operatuinal-level distillation.
Read More
A Parametric Analysis of Duels
April 1, 1984
This paper analyzes the type of game of timing that is known as discrete, 'noisy' duel.
Read More | Download Report
DEPENDENCE, RISK, AND VULNERABILITY
July 1, 1981
This paper provides a framework that conceives vulnerability as a function of both dependence and the risk that hurt will be imposed. Included is an approach for reducing vulnerability.
Read More | Download Report
THE D-CHOICE SECRETARY PROBLEM
February 1, 1981
This paper discusses a generalized Secretary problem, where the player is given d choices to choose all of the d best objects. The optimal procedure is found by converting the d choice Secretary Problem into a 'walk' in a two-dimensional grid. A simple approximation to the optimal strategy rule is also presented.
Read More
A SECRETARY PROBLEM WITH A RANDOM NUMBER OF CHOICES
June 1, 1979
In this paper, the best-choice Secretary Problem is modified to allow the player to make more than one choice. The probability of selecting the best object is computed. The optimal starting time is characterized, and expressions are derived for the expected number of objects chosen and the expected number of objects sampled by this procedure. Asymptotic results are also derived.
Read More
AN ANALYSIS OF THE SEARCH AND DETECTION PROBLEM
December 1, 1978
A modification of the Koopman framework for search and detection problems is proposed to account for nonuniform probabilities of target arrival. It essentially consists in determining various physical quantities relevant to the search and detection game for any of a family of simple target paths, each one of which is assigned a given probability of having been chosen from the family. The actual value of the physical quantity of interest is then obtained by averaging over the family parameters. We developed this idea to provide probability densities of target arrival and detection environment. The mathematical structure of the problem is shown to reduce a system of iterative equations that are easily amenable to numerical as well as analytical handling. The most appealing quality of our formal structure is the capability it has to account for such realistic features of the search and detection game as partial knowledge of target track and correlations along the path of the searcher.
Read More | Download Report
THE DISCRETE EVASION GAME
August 1, 1974
Theoretical and computational aspects of the three-move discrete evasion game are presented. An evader strategy is given that yields an upper bound of .2890 for the game-value, and a Marksman strategy is given that yields a lower bound .2842. A particular form for the Marksman strategy is presented which depends on r bits of information, and it is proved that this type of strategy is near-optimal. The results are also applied to the two-move game, which was solved earlier by other workers.
Read More | Download Report
ANALYSIS, DATA INPUTS AND SENSITIVITY TESTS IN WAR GAMES
June 1, 1974
Preparation of rules and sensitivity analysis use a great fraction of the time for both manual and computer assisted games. The preparation of game rules requires that the object of the game be examined, then appropriate rules be adapted from other games or be devised from source data. Usually some operational data from fleet tests and experimental programs is reduced to suitable inputs - sometimes a probability, sometimes a distribution. The scenario requires similar attention for military capabilities and political credibility. When rules and scenario are completed, the method of combining them in the play must be established. Small hand-played simulations can establish procedures and may provide rules for a grosser game. Two examples - a minefield and air defense hand simulation - are discussed.
Read More | Download Report
ON BEHAVIOR STRATEGY SOLUTIONS IN TWO-PERSON ZERO-SUM FINITE EXTENDED GAMES WITH IMPERFECT INFORMATION, PART I: A METHOD FOR DETERMINATION OF MINIMALLY COMPLEX BEHAVIOR STRATEGY SOLUTIONS
June 1, 1974
This paper provides an analysis of the relationship between any given two-person zero-sum finite extended game with given information schemes for its players, and an associated N-person non-cooperative game.
Read More | Download Report
ON BEHAVIOR STRATEGY SOLUTIONS IN TWO-PERSON ZERO-SUM FINITE EXTENDED GAMES WITH IMPERFECT INFORMATION, PART II, DETERMINATION ... IN A MEDICAL DECISION PROCESS
June 1, 1974
A medical decision process is considered in which a doctor must make a sequence of treatment and operate - don't operate decisions for a patient on the basis of treatment & diagnosis information which the doctor gathers as he proceeds.
Read More | Download Report