Research for Forecasts

The Commander, Seventh Fleet, asked CNA to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. This research memorandum focuses on the most probable trends relating to Southeast Asia and Australia during this period. It discusses a few countries and issues at somewhat disproportionate length where circumstances appeared to warrant it - Vietnam because of its long isolation, Australia because of its long alliance relationship with the United States, and South China Sea territorial claims because of the complexity of the issues.

This research memorandum is part of a study sponsored by the Commander, Seventh Fleet, to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. The study attempts to identify the most probable evolutionary trends in the APR out to 2010, and to derive implications for U.S. forces, particularly the Navy. This memorandum identifies these trends for Japan. The implications for the forces and for the Navy are contained in the final report for this project. The analysis strongly suggests the importance of a stable, credible U.S. presence in Japan in reinforcing Japan s current, yet potentially problematic, pro-U.S. orientation. The U.S. presence will significantly influence Japan' s defense policies because it will determine the credibility of broad U.S. nuclear and other security guarantees to Japan. Such a presence cannot be taken for granted 15 years hence.

In April 1991, the Director of Naval Intelligence asked CNA to undertake a formal study that would define the character of the future Soviet or Russian Navy. In July 1991, we launched the Future Russian Navy project. This annotated briefing provides an overview of the study's findings. It summarizes the research memoranda that document the elements of the project, and reports on the overall findings in anticipation of the study's final report.

This paper examines three aspects of the Marine Corps validation research effort that may have implications for Marine Corps manpower issues. They are: validity of the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) in the prediction of job performance, differential validity of ASVAB aptitude composites in the prediction of job performance across infantry occupational specialties, and, interaction of aptitude and experience in the prediction of job performance.