Research for Enlistment

The Rand Corporation has developed a model that determines cost-effective enlistment standards for Military Occupational Specialties. Since this model may have an impact on enlistment policy, it is important that the modeling approach used to determine the enlistment standards be fully understood. This research memorandum describes the modeling technique used by the Rand Corporation and compares the Rand approach to alternative modeling methods in an attempt to determine the sensitivity of the model outcome to the methodology employed.

The Job Performance Measurement Project has broken new ground by embarking on the large-scale development and administration of hands-on job performance tests. In the next stage, this pioneering effort can go even futher in helping to rationalize the selection and classification process by evaluating the cost-effectiveness of enlistment standards. This paper outlines a process for such an evaluation.

This research memorandum examines the effects of three factors on attrition from the Navy within two and six months of shipping for recruits who entered in FY 1985. These three factors are participation in the Delayed Entry Program (DEP), month of shipment, and enlistment program. The results indicate that DEP recruits have lower attrition than direct shippers, that attrition among direct shippers is higher in months with high accession rates, and that attrition rates vary by enlistment program.

This research memorandum reports on the construction of an individual-level data set for Navy enlistment contracts for FY83 and FY84. It discusses the problems associated with these data and formalizes a contract attrition model, which is then estimated in a logistic framework.