Research for Enlisted Personnel

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January 1, 2001
The Navy plans to recruit more than 55,000 youth into its active enlisted force each year for the foreseeable future. However, decision-makers fear that recruiting difficulties will continue and that this goal-recently revised downward from 58,000-is not feasible. The Integrated Warfare Architectures (IWARs) are a part of the Navy's annual planning process. This year's Manpower and Personnel IWAR focuses on increasing retention and the appeal of naval service. As part of this effort, N813 asked CNA to describe and evaluate alternative retention available to the Navy.
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September 1, 2000
One of the biggest issues of concern to military personnel is the military "pay gap". Many are troubled by the possibility that the level of military pay has declined significantly relative to that of civilian wages. A common concern is that a civilian-military wage differential will quickly lead to retention and recruiting problems for the military. Furthermore, many in the Navy believe that the differentials are more prevalent in some ratings than in others-specifically, that the highly technical ratings are having the largest retention and recruiting problems as a result of relatively high civilian pay. Given these concerns, the objective of this study is to examine the correlation between manning shortfalls in various Navy enlisted ratings and the relative earnings of enlisted personnel in these occupations. We also examine differences in military compensation from one rating to another and compare these differentials with those in the civilian sector. In addition, we examine the relationship between military compensation and the propensity to reenlist, using our mew measure of occupation-specific relative military compensation. This analysis yields estimates of the responsiveness of reenlistment rates to changes in relative pay, which can be used to estimate the change in compensation necessary to achieve manning level targets on a rating-by-rating basis.
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August 1, 2000
In June 1999, the Navy's Five Year Development Plan included roughly 80,000 civilian positions as part of its "competitive sourcing initiative." As a result of competitive sourcing, half or more of the positions involved with commercial activities (Navy activities that are similar to activities in industry) could be removed from the civil service roles either because of outsourcing or internal efficiencies. Because the competitions were planned for the most part, as isolated actions, the broader consequences of these competitions for the overall civil service workforce were not fully understood. For this reason, the Assistant Deputy Chief of Naval Operations (N1B) asked CNA to develop some guidelines that would help decision-makers plan for the consequences of the Navy's competitive sourcing initiative. Specifically, the request was to (a) establish a baseline of the current and past civil service workforce, and project changes that could result from the competitive sourcing initiative; (b) benchmark the Navy system and its
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May 1, 2000
The Navy is considering outsourcing some ship functions to civilians. This report focus directly on the issues related to the outsourcing of service functions aboard deploying ships and examines practical issues that arise in integrating civilians into a military working environment on board the ship. Our main interest in this effort is to get an accurate sense of the fleet's issues and concerns, particularly the sailors who will have to work with civilians, should the Navy decide to outsource. This research memorandum identifies the main issues and discusses their effect on the compatibility of a mixed crew of active duty personnel and civilians.
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October 1, 1999
Historically, the level of fleet manning has varied over the course of the year. Arrivals to and departures from the sea fleet have not coincided well, resulting in significant understaffing at certain times of the year. The objective of this report is to recommend policy options to bring about better matching of enlisted sea gains and losses to reduce the seasonal variation in sea manning. We first document the pattern of seasonal variation. We then decompose the transitions to and from the sea fleet to determine the sources of the variation. Finally, we offer an initial look at certain policies that aim to reduce the seasonal variation. We find substantial variation in sea manning over the course of the year for both E1-E4 and E5-E9 sailors. The main contributor to the seasonal variation in E1-E4 net gains is strength losses at End of Active Obligated Service dates (EAOSs). We construct several policy options that aim to reduce seasonal variation by shifting these EAOSs dates so that they match sea gains more closely.
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January 1, 1999
The Deputy Chief of Naval Operations, Manpower, and Personnel asked CNA to analyze ways to transform the size and shape of the enlisted force to better meet the Navy's future requirements at an affordable cost. In this research, we analyze how the Sea Tour Extension Program (STEP) could improve sea/shore balance in the Navy. We discuss who would be eligible and how many sailors would likely extend their sea tours in response to STEP. We also examine how much STEP would improve sea manning, the cost of the program, and how large of a bonus would be effective. We found that a STEP bonus of about $250 per month would eliminate manning differential in the undermanned ratings and improve sea/shore rotation in ratings targeted solely for sea/shore ratio reasons. Such a STEP would have a program cost of about $23 million.
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August 1, 1998
The Personnel Readiness Division of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (J1) asked CNA to examine the earnings of enlisted personnel and to compare them with the earnings of similar people in the civilian labor market. We used multiple regression to estimate civilian earnings of non-college-graduates and used these models to predict the earnings potential of enlisted military personnel. We found that earnings in the civilian and military sectors are similar and that both fell, when adjusted for inflation, between 1992 and 1996 (the year for which the most recent civilian data were available).
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August 1, 1998
The Personnel Readiness Division of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (J1) asked CNA to look into why people are leaving the services, particularly if there has been any change in the reasons personnel cite for leaving the services, and the quality of people who are leaving. The analyses presented here are based on the results form surveys for the Navy, Army, and Air Force. Across the services, we found evidence of increased dissatisfaction with different aspects of military compensation, including pay, advancement opportunities, and retirement benefits. But trends in retention through the first quarter of 1997 show no immediate alarms. Army trends seem to show long-term improvement, Navy data indicates that declines may be leveling off, and Air Force retention rates are erratic and reveal no real trends.
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April 1, 1998
This paper examines the effectiveness of Voluntary Education (VOLED) Program, which provides off-duty educational opportunities integrating a variety of continuing education programs to Sailors seeking to enhance their professional and personal growth. VOLED comprises three major instructional elements: Tuition Assistance, the Program for Afloat College Education (PACE) and the Academic Skills Learning Centers (ASLCs). The analyses finds that college education through VOLED improves promotion prospects, helps Sailors retake the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) to qualify for Navy ratings for which they were not eligible, has a significant positive impact on retention, and that all elements are cost-effective. The report recommends maintaining full support for VOLED and accelerating academic skills investments. It also recommends modifying the ASLC contract to promote greater participation and establishing an academic transcript system. Finally, it recommends encouraging a more supportive command climate and limiting the enrollment of E1s and E2s.
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April 1, 1998
The Deputy Chief of Naval Personnel asked CNA to analyze ways to transform the size and shape of the enlisted force to better meet the Navy's future requirements at an affordable cost. This research analyzes alternatives to the existing sea pay structure that generate voluntary extensions of sea duty, reduce crew turnover, and improve retention. The briefing discusses three options: an accelerated phase-in of sea pay table, an expanded sea pay premium, and a mixture of phase-in and sea pay premium. It compares them with maintaining the existing structure of the sea pay table and simply scaling it up by the rate of inflation and also assesses their effectiveness in reducing enlisted crew turnover and increasing sea duty and retention among the enlisted sailors. An accelerated phase-in option, which generates more first-term retention and helps with sea/shore balance, is recommended.
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