Research for Endstrength

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Marine Corps Separation Rates: What's Happened Since FY 00
October 1, 2008
As the Marine Corps continues its growth toward an active-duty endstrength of 202,000, it needs to reduce the rate of separations (including end-of-active-service (EAS) and non-EAS separations) for enlisted Marines and officers. In this document, we examine separation rates over the FY00 to FY07 period and assess their patterns. We find that, despite high operational tempo, average separation rates for enlisted personnel, warrant officers, and commissioned officers were actually lower in FY07 than in FY00. There were, however, small increases in separation rates for some subgroups, including females, retirement-eligible aviators, and ground officers with 7 to 10 years of completed service. Still, the overall pattern of separation rates indicates no worrisome trend.
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USMC Reserve Endstrength Model: User's Guide
April 1, 2007
As the Long War continues, the USMC Manpower and Reserve Affairs (M&RA) Reserve Manpower Planner must accurately forecast reserve endstrength to ensure that it meets numerical and budgetary thresholds. The planner makes these forecasts using a model contained in a Microsoft (MS) Excel spreadsheet. However, before our efforts, the structure and organization of the spreadsheet made it cumbersome and time consuming to use. The planner also had to manually enter data and several formulas—creating the potential for human error. In addition, the spreadsheet’s size was increasing and was rapidly approaching MS Excel’s worksheet limitations. The planner asked CNA to restructure the spreadsheet to extend its life until the Total Force Manpower Models Reengineering (TFMMR) program is operational and to reduce the potential for human error. The new spreadsheet has a number of benefits over the original spreadsheet, including an extended life span, greater simplicity in use, and less potential for error through the use of automated inputs and formula adjustment. This user’s guide provides a broad overview of how to use the spreadsheet.
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USMC Reserve Endstrength Model
April 1, 2007
As the Long War continues, the USMC Manpower and Reserve Affairs (M&RA) Reserve Manpower Planner must accurately forecast reserve endstrength to ensure that it meets numerical and budgetary thresholds. The planner makes these forecasts using a model contained in a Microsoft (MS) Excel spreadsheet. However, before our efforts, the structure and organization of the spreadsheet made it cumbersome and time consuming to use. The planner also had to manually enter data and several formulas—creating the potential for human error. In addition, the spreadsheet’s size was increasing and was rapidly approaching MS Excel’s worksheet limitations. The planner asked CNA to restructure the spreadsheet to extend its life until the Total Force Manpower Models Reengineering (TFMMR) program is operational and to reduce the potential for human error. The new spreadsheet has a number of benefits over the original spreadsheet, including an extended life span, greater simplicity in use, and less potential for error through the use of automated inputs and formula adjustment. This briefing provides an overview of our efforts, as well as appendices on the model’s inputs and outputs.
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Endstrength: Forecasting Marine Corps Losses Final Report
February 1, 2005

The Marine Corps's manpower costs—about $9.4 billion—represent 60 percent of its annual budget. Before this study, there was no institutionalized and documented methodology for forecasting losses and no systematic attempt to improve existing techniques. Personnel charged with developing plans to meet Marine Corps endstrength requirements relied on information gleaned during overlap with their predecessors and sometimes developed their own methods, which were susceptible to errors. The study's authors revamped the process to make it more systematic and recommended ways to accurately forecast endstrength losses and gains.

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