Research for Economics

In November 1994, the Secretary of the Navy asked the Assistant Secretary of the Navy (Research, Development and Acquisition) [ASN(RD&A)] to assess the minimum essential industrial base that the Department must sustain. The assessment was to become part of the FY97 Program Review (PR-97). In turn, ASN(RD&A) asked CNA to help support the assessment process. In addition to PR-97 support, the sponsor asked CNA to develop a framework for addressing industrial base questions because the Navy Department is required to perform many of these industrial base assessments. This paper proposes a CNA methodology for conducting industrial base studies. It is designed as an instructional document to guide analysts in capturing economic sources of industrial base risks. This framework helps to identify likely problems and then to tailor feasible solutions. The framework is general enough to be applied to a wide variety of industrial base items. The goal of this paper is to separate the important factors regarding the industrial base from the extraneous ones. By highlighting the key elements and economic dynamics, the methodology can support Navy and Marine Corps decisions on critical industrial base issues.

The Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, Plans, Policy and Operations asked the Center for Naval Analyses to evaluate Argentine naval strategy, its political and economic sustainability, its impact on other key nations in South America, and the implications for U.S. naval relations with countries of the Southern Cone. Thus, we examined in-depth the political-military environment in Argentina, Brazil, and Chile--the three naval powers of the Southern Cone. The study considers the impact of civilian leadership on the Southern Cone armed forces, and navies in particular. It documents the themes of defense policies evolving within the region, examines broad political support for the armed forces in general, and gives special attention to navy roles and missions. The study also recommends approaches for the U.S. Navy in developing a long-term strategy toward the Southern Cone and Latin America.

This research memorandum is one in a series of papers stemming from CNA's Future Russian Navy project, which was requested by the Director of Naval Intelligence. In this paper, we examine the evolving maritime interests of the former Soviet Union and those of Russia, its principal heir. Until the 1960s, the Soviet Union acted as a coastal state, protecting its own territorial waters. It then built up its forces and emerged as a significant global maritime power in the late 1960s. Now Russia is returning to a coastal focus. We look at the reasons for this latest shift in focus -- namely, problems in Russia's oil and fishing industries -- and the way in which the Russian Navy's missions will likely change to reflect the nation's new economic imperatives.

The end of the cold War and the breakup of the Soviet Union have many global implications, the most interesting of which is the potential for lasting peace. Lasting peace can allow the United States to change politically, militarily, and economically. One obvious concern is that this transition be as efficient as possible. Resources that are being freed up from defense-related endeavors can be shifted to alternative uses. How can we, as a society, ensure that the transition is smooth and efficient? If there is a 'dividend' of peace, are there government policies that will use the dividend most effectively? This paper addresses the economic implications of peace for the United States.