Research for Economic Theory

This paper considers forecasts based upon reduced forms estimated directly, and, reduced forms derived from structural equations estimated by k-class methods. Using the method of small-o asymptotics, the asymptotic expected mean squared error of any linear combination of forecasts is derived in both cases. Except in special cases, we show that neither of the two methods of estimation dominates in the sense of having a lower expected mean squared error, regardless of which k-class method is used. This result confirms earlier findings of the same nature based upon a large sample asymptotic efficiency criterion.

In this study, small-disturbance asymptotic approximation methods are employed to study the properties of forecasts based upon directly estimated reduced forms and upon k-class induced reduced forms. The actual errors in forecasts are approximated by random variables close in probability to the actual forecast errors, and the moments of the approximate forecast errors are studied in order to gain insight about the behavior of the actual forecast errors. Theorems are presented giving the small-disturbance asymptotic bias and mean squared error of forecasts based upon reduced forms estimated directly or derived from the k-class estimates of structural parameters.

This dissertation develops and tests a modification of the standard theory of consumer demand that yields implications concerning the consumer's allocation of time to consumption and income producing activities.

Simple and multivariate statistical techniques are employed to quantify ship overhaul policies to determine if excess capacity existed in Navy shipyards prior to the escatlation of hostilities in Southeast Asia in 1964. Additionally, economic theory is used to interpret the mathematical models.