Research for Economic Theory

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Procedures and Software for Assessing Uncertainty in Cost Estimates
June 1, 1995
With extensive literature on the treatment of uncertainty in cost estimates, and because several uncertainty software packages are now available, the Naval Center for Cost Analysis asked the Center for Naval Analyses to conduct a study with the objective of evaluating the procedures and software that it now employs. This report begins with a discussion of introductory analytical issues and then focuses on the software packages that were evaluated. Additional analytical questions are addressed in connection with those evaluations.
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When the Hawks Come Home To Roost: The Macroeconomic Implications of the Peace Dividend
November 1, 1992
The end of the cold War and the breakup of the Soviet Union have many global implications, the most interesting of which is the potential for lasting peace. Lasting peace can allow the United States to change politically, militarily, and economically. One obvious concern is that this transition be as efficient as possible. Resources that are being freed up from defense-related endeavors can be shifted to alternative uses. How can we, as a society, ensure that the transition is smooth and efficient? If there is a 'dividend' of peace, are there government policies that will use the dividend most effectively? This paper addresses the economic implications of peace for the United States.
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Economics: The Key to Russia's Engagement in Asia
April 1, 1992
This seminar report provides a brief overview of a seminar held at the Center for Naval Analyses.
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State of the Union
March 1, 1992
This report highlights events in a seminar regarding a recent trip to the former Soviet Union, by representatives of the Center for Naval Analysese (R. Murray, H. Gaffney, and L. VanMetre).
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PROFIT-MAKING VS. OPTIMAL BEHAVIOR IN A SPATIAL SETTING: SUMMARY AND EXTENSIONS
March 1, 1984
This paper discusses several aspects of the relationships among monopoly, competitive, and welfare-maximizing behavior.
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THE BERLIN-BAGHDAD RAILWAY AS A CAUSE OF WORLD WAR I
January 1, 1984
This paper traces the history of the Baghdad Railway from its conception in 1888 to the beginning of WW I. It shows how important the Railway was in the political, economic, and diplomatic events which led to WW I.
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An Empirical Study of Production Inefficiency in the Presence of Errors-in-the-Variables
April 1, 1982
This paper illustrates a method for estimating a frontier production relation when output is poorly measured -- leading to errors-in-the-variables. The technique is meant to avoid not only spurious findings of inefficiency but also an overestimate of scale economies.
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A METHOD FOR ANALYZING MULTIPLE SPELL DURATION DATA
March 1, 1982
This paper derives a probability model which analyzes multiple spell data by taking into account both the probability of changing states and the length of time an individual remains in each state.
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Cost-Effectiveness of Potential Federal Policies Affecting Research & Development Expenditures in the Auto, Steel and Food Industries
February 1, 1981

This paper analyzes two specifc policies for affecting Research and Development (R&D) expenditures: (1) changes in the level of federally financed R&D expenditures, and (2) changes in the cost of private R&D through income tax credits.

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BEYOND FOLKLORE AND FABLES IN FORESTRY TO POSITIVE ECONOMICS
February 1, 1981
This paper discusses the validity of two common beliefs held by forest economists.
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