Research for Diagrams

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July 1, 1990
This paper, undertaken as part of CNA's Quo Vadis II project, examines alternative statistical models for the cumulative distribution of cost and time of Navy Research and Development (R&D) projects.
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June 1, 1990
This paper investigates the dynamic nature of the Navy's Research and Development (R&D) budget by examining the Navy's budget in the aggregate and by functional activity (i.e., manpower, operation and maintenance, procurement, and research and development). Qualitative conclusions about trends in each functional area are made using constant-dollar plots for the period 1955-88. The percentage of the aggregate Department of the Navy (DON) budget that is allotted to R&D has been remarkably consistent at 10 percent over the last 30 years. A forecast for the R&D budget percentage is made for the next 5 years using statistical techniques. Thus, independent forecasts of the aggregate DON budget can be used to generate alternative R&D budget forecasts.
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March 1, 1978

This paper presents tables and graphs assessing the accuracy of a formula (programmable on a desk calculator) for approximating the circular coverage function of a circular-normal probability distribution. Use of this formula together with the error curves presented here enable one to calculate the circular coverage function with a maximum error on the order of 0.0002 for offsets up to 50 and covering-circle radii up to 4.50.

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June 1, 1974
This paper briefly presents Korean war casualties fitted to causation factor relationships.
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June 1, 1974
This study concerns the probability that a single fighter aircraft will make visual contact on a single target aircraft under daylight conditions of illumination. Quantitative results are presented which permit the computation of the probability of sighting by any given range as a function of each of a number of parameters. Some typical examples are worked out in detail showing the effects of such parameters as relative speed, angle of view, uncertainty in azimuth and in elevation. See also 10 000430.
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June 1, 1974
This paper considers the problem of optimizing the benefits to be realized from allocating resources in a stochastic flow process. The Naval resupply system is viewed as consisting of several processes, from the requisitioning, to the processing, to the transportation of spare parts. The time necessary for completion of any of the processes by any of the assumed homogeneous items is a random variable described by a distribution function whose parameters are functions of the budget at which each process is supported. Having delineated alternative budget levels and associated parameter improvements at each stage, the problem is to allocate a fixed budget so that the probability of completion for any item over the whole flow system before a given deadline is maximized. The solution to this problem is presented with specific reference to the Naval resupply system.
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June 1, 1974
This study is to be used in conjunction with the theory contained in a previous study. It presents a method and associated working graphs which permit the calculation of visual detection probabilities of target aircraft by an airborne observer, under daylight conditions of illumination, for a wide range of parameters. See also 10 000368.
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June 1, 1974
This paper presents the U.N. states' attitudes about and patterns of preference for managing the uses of the ocean (the 'seabed debates') applied in quantitative thematic content analysis.
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August 1, 1952
Probabilities of daylight visual detection of aircraft have been determined in trials. Comparison of the results with those predicted by visual detection theory indicates that the theory adequately describes visual detection in air interception. The agreement between trial results and theory is better when the cross-sectional areas of the targets are used in computing maximum ranges of detection than it is when the assumption is made that these ranges are proportional to the cube roots of the gross aircraft weights. See also 10 000368.00.
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