Research for Demographics

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Final Report of the Enlisted Manpower, Personnel and Training Study
September 1, 1986
Summarizes the work and finding of the Enlisted Manpower, Personnel and Training study conducted by a team of analysts at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA). The study examined ways the Navy can most cost effectively attract and retain the enlisted personnel it needs when it is growing and when faced by stronger competition from the civilian sector and other services. Detailed descriptions of the analysis have been published in a series of CNA publications; this report summarizes those works and highlights the main findings relevant to the Navy's manpower needs.
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An Analysis of Marine Corps Enlisted Dependency Rates
September 1, 1986
A model for predicting Marine enlisted dependency rates by pay grade is developed in this memorandum. It estimates the effects of economic and demographic factors and provides monthly forecasts through fiscal year 1990.
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Survival Rates of Prior-Service Recruits, 1978-1984
August 1, 1986
The survival rates of prior-service Navy personnel from FY 1978 through FY 1984 are examined. Survival rates for this group of recruits (i.e., at what rate and for how long they remain in the Navy) depend primarily on paygrade at enlistment. The analysis shows a sharp distinction between E1-to-E3 enlistees and E4-to-E7 enlistees, with the latter group having the higher rates. It also examines other factors influencing survival rates including age, education level, enlistment program, and previous military experience.
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Validity of the ASVAB for Predicting Performance in Marine Corps Training Courses: Gender Differences
August 1, 1986
Females tend to have higher performance than males in clerical and food services training courses, when aptitude scores are held constant. To help account for the differences, educational level and interest in clerical-type activities are included in this analysis, along with aptitude composite scores. A recommendation is made about adjusting aptitude qualifying scores for females.
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Subpopulation Differences in Equating Computerized Adaptive and Paper-and-Pencil Versions of the ASVAB
June 1, 1986
Computerized Adaptive Test (CAT) and Paper-and-Pencil (PP) Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) scores are equated in several subpopulations to determine if racial minorities, females, those who did not complete high school, or individuals lacking experience using computers would be at a disadvantage if CAT rather than PP scores were used for selection. Equating is generally independent of population group.
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Supply Problems in the Naval Reserve
February 1, 1986
The Navy Selected Reserve (SELRES) is slated to grow by 30 percent over the next five years. This paper addresses the question, are those numbers attainable and at what price? Information discussing SELRES enlistment, continuation and cost-effective growth strategies is included. The tentative answer is yes, over the next five years if real military pay does not decline. A model is being put together including pay elasticities, unemployment rate elasticities, and demographic differences for each rating for enlistment and retention of prior service veterans.
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Equivalence of Scores From Computerized Adaptive and Paper-and- Pencil ASVAB Tests
November 1, 1985
The Department of Defense plans to introduce a Computerized Adaptive Test (CAT) version of the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) in the near future. To maintain continuity of enlistment standards, the test scores from the current paper-and-pencil and CAT version of ASVAB must be equated. This report examines data from an administration of an early version of CAT to ascertain if any serious problems are likely to occur when equating CAT and paper-and-pencil scores.
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Determinants of Dependency Rates for Marine Corps Enlisted Personnel
May 1, 1985
This paper analyzes the causes of the rise in the dependency rate for Marine Corps enlisted personnel since 1980. The effect of economic and demographic factors are examined statistically, and forecasts through 1988 are provided.
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Utilization of Men and Women in Science and Engineering Occupations: Task and Earning Comparability
July 1, 1984
Differences in earnings of males and females have been attributed to differences in personal characteristics, fields of specialization, and years of professional experience. This study focuses on scientists and engineers, seeking to determine the extent to which differences in measured characteristics explain differences in earnings. In addition to documenting gender differences in the earnings of new entrants and experienced personnel, the study investigates gender differences in the choice of college major and in the transition from school to work.
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Measuring the Productivity of First-Term Navy Enlistees
April 1, 1984
This paper analyzes an unusual and largely unresearched data set, Rand Corporation's Enlisted Utilization Survey.
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