Research for Demographics

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November 1, 1993
The attitudes of the population at large and the expectations of young men and women about appropriate gender roles have undergone a major transformation over the past three decades. Reflecting this transformation, public opinion about the propriety of women serving in the armed forces has also shifted over time. In this paper, we review traditions that have fostered the exclusion of women from military service and explore how technological change and the nature of modern warfare will affect that tradition of exclusion. We consider some of the advantages and disadvantage of enlarging the proportion of women in the Navy. We also consider the implications of these changes on the traditional division of labor in the society at large.
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July 1, 1993
The Marine Corps recruits and screens about 2,000 officer candidates annually. Recruiting minority candidates who meet its stringent standards, however, is not easy. Recruiting qualified minorities is especially difficult because of stiff competition from other services, industry, government, and the academic arena. Consider these statistics: (1) of male college graduates in 1990-1991, five percent were African-Americans, and three percent were Hispanics; (2) only two percent of males with Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) scores meeting USMC standards were African-American, and four percent Hispanic. It is clear that the Marine Corps must recruit more than a proportionate share of the qualified minority pool. Can the Marine Corps improve the way it allocates recruiting goals and resources to take advantage of regional variations in race/ethnicity. Headquarters Marine Corps asked CNA to help with this problem as part of its study of Successful Recruiting and Training of Marine Corps Officers. In this study, we also explored the relationship between officer candidate characteristics and success in Officer Candidate School, commissioning, and The Basic School. In addition, we looked at officer characteristics and promotions to captain and major.
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February 1, 1992
This research memorandum documents analyses of the relationship between Personnel Tempo of Operations (PERSTEMPO) and enlisted retention. CNA's ship employment history files were used to reconstruct the PERSTEMPO experience of each surface ship since the mid-1970s. This PERSTEMPO information was added to the personnel records of sailors making retention decisions while aboard surface ships in the FY 1979 through FY 1988 period. Finally, information on pay, civilian employment opportunities, and bonuses was added to each sailor's record. A statistical regression technique was used to explore the relations between PERSTEMPO and retention. A by-product of the study is updated estimates of the relationship and relative military pay, unemployment rates, and selective reenlistment bonuses.
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January 1, 1992
The main objective of this study is to identify an improved method for allocating Marine Corps recruiter support funds to the districts. This research memorandum describes a way to account for variation in the average support cost across the Marine Corps recruiting districts. Using FY 1989 and 1990 data, certain variables are found to explain recruiting station support funding costs. Model estimates are made of FY 1992 district support funding requirements. In addition, estimates are made of support cost savings from proposed station consolidations.
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July 1, 1991
This research memorandum analyzes the factors underlying the recent growth in the proportion of enlisted Marines that are married or that have dependents. A methodology is applied to break down changes in marriage and dependency rates into the part that is due to changes in the mix of characteristics and the part that is due to changes in behavior.
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June 1, 1991
The Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) is administered in high schools and post-secondary schools as part of DoD's Student Testing Program. Norms for 11th and higher grades are based on a national sample tested in 1980 as part of the Profile of American Youth Study. Tenth grade norms use a nonrandom sample collected in 1984 by the Military Entrance Processing Command. With the introduction of Forms 18 and 19, scores will be reported on three composites and ten subtests. The objective of this research memorandum is to present norms for these scores.
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March 1, 1988
This research contribution uses data on the productivity of Naval Reserve recruiters to estimate the effects of on-the-job learning, experience, and individual characteristics on job performance. The econometric approach begins with the Poisson distribution, whose mean is assumed to be a function of explanatory variables. Generalizations are specified to control for individual heterogeneity as well as over-dispersion.
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December 1, 1987
Although many studies of military enlistment have been conducted during the last two decades, few have analyzed the reserve component. This research memorandum develops and estimates an econometric model of enlistments for the Naval Reserve. The analysis incorporates factors such as size of recruiting force, Navy veteran population, local unemployment rates, civilian wages, and recruiting goals.
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December 1, 1986
This paper analyzes the factors that may influence the decision of first-term enlisted Navy veterans to join the Selected Reserve. A model of the determinants of affiliation is developed and estimated using data on active Navy separations and Reserve accessions from 1979 to 1985. Unique features of the model and estimation are that they combine all forms of pay into one variable, incorporate demand constraints, adjust for simultaneity between bonus eligibility and affiliation rates, and use a more comprehensive data set than has been available before. Affiliation is found to depend on Reserve pay, unemployment rates, geographic area, race, sex, paygrade, and Navy rating.
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