Research for Demographics

The objective of this study was to characterize the variety of factors associated with motor-vehicle deaths among Marines. The study points to a number of risk factors (career events and characteristics of individual Marines) that are highly associated with deaths.

The Deputy of Chief of Naval Operations for Manpower and Personnel asked CNA to study various issues related to maintaining fleet readiness while expanding the role of women in the operating forces. First, we studied the pattern of losses of personnel from ships by gender and explored policies aimed at reducing them. Second, we updated a CNA planning model that links women's accession plans, bunk plans, and a variety of personnel policy parameters. Recommendations include maintaining a presence of female Chief Petty Officers of a least 5 percent of the female crew in order to reduce the level of unplanned losses of junior women, and increasing A-School proportion of female accessions in order to improve retention of female personnel.

Since the inception of the All-Volunteer Force in 1973, the military personnel system has shown a remarkable ability to deal with a diverse range of challenges. The purpose of this paper is to examine the challenges ahead and propose how the military personnel system will have to adapt to continue to prosper. We start our discussion with a review of four potential problem areas in the future: demographic, economic, and social change; new military concepts and missions; the revolution in business affairs; and technology. Within these broad areas, we focus on specific issues and the challenges they could present for the current military personnel system. The paper also identifies four areas that need major reforms to meet these challenges: recruiting, career management, compensation, and training.

The Commander, Seventh Fleet, asked CNA to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) to the year 2010. In addition to an examination of the major countries of the region, of security trends in Asia (e.g., demographics and weapon development), and of future economic trends in the APR, this assessment warranted an evaluation of Chinese naval capabilities over the period of interest. This research memorandum presents the results of that evaluation. Much of the debate over China's future naval capabilities focuses on whether China will soon have a 'bluewater' navy. In this analysis, we argue that one of China's strategic objectives is to develop a regional navy. We define 'regional' or 'greenwater' navy as a navy capable of effectively achieving China's current regional aspirations (e.g., blockade of Taiwan, seizure of one or more islands in the Spratlys, sustainment of a naval force in the South China Sea, and the ability to inflict damage upon an intervening foreign navy).