Research for Demand

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Performing Industrial Base Analyses Volume I: Methodology
August 1, 1995
In November 1994, the Secretary of the Navy asked the Assistant Secretary of the Navy (Research, Development and Acquisition) [ASN(RD&A)] to assess the minimum essential industrial base that the Department must sustain. The assessment was to become part of the FY97 Program Review (PR-97). In turn, ASN(RD&A) asked CNA to help support the assessment process. In addition to PR-97 support, the sponsor asked CNA to develop a framework for addressing industrial base questions because the Navy Department is required to perform many of these industrial base assessments. This paper proposes a CNA methodology for conducting industrial base studies. It is designed as an instructional document to guide analysts in capturing economic sources of industrial base risks. This framework helps to identify likely problems and then to tailor feasible solutions. The framework is general enough to be applied to a wide variety of industrial base items. The goal of this paper is to separate the important factors regarding the industrial base from the extraneous ones. By highlighting the key elements and economic dynamics, the methodology can support Navy and Marine Corps decisions on critical industrial base issues.
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A Methodology for Projecting U.S.-Flag Commercial Tanker Capacity
March 1, 1986
A methodology is developed for projecting the size of the U.S.-flag tanker fleet over the next 25 years. Such projections are needed to assess whether the Ready Reserve Force can be an economical and effective program for maintaining adequate tanker tonnage to support both military operations and essential economic activity. Domestic crude oil and refined product flows are modeled, and a scheme is developed to allocate the flows between tankers, barges, and pipelines. Relationships are specified to convert the volumes of oil allocated to tankers into tanker tonnage requirements and into requirements for numbers of tankers of various sizes.
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THE ADJUSTMENT OF EMPLOYMENT TO TECHNICAL CHANGE IN THE STEEL AND AUTO INDUSTRIES
May 1, 1983
This paper presents estimates of what effect technical changes had on labor demands from 1958-1977 in the steel and auto industries.
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EFFECTS OF TRADE RESTRICTIONS ON IMPORTS OF STEEL
February 1, 1981
This paper uses an econometric model to estimate the short-term gains and losses to particular groups from free trade in the steel industry.
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THE VALUE OF TIME IN AIR TRAVEL, THEORY AND EVIDENCE
August 1, 1974
The roles of time and money cost in the demand for air travel are analyzed. The first step is to construct the theory of consumer demand under a time constraint and to deduce its theorems. These theorems are applied to air travel through use of a total price demand function. This analysis considers the effects for fare, trip time, airport delay, schedule frequency, trip distance, traveler's wage rates, and non-wage income on the demand for air travel. Many results concerning elasticities are obtained, including a necessary relationship between the time, price, and total price elasticities of demand. Tests of the theorems are performed, the various elasticities are estimates, and the relationship between the elasticities required by the theory is used to obtain an estimate of the value of time in air travel.
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TIME IN THE BUDGET OF THE CONSUMER
June 1, 1974
Budget constraints and time constraints on consumer utility function.
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A FORECAST OF AIR TRAVEL DEMAND AND AIRPORT AND AIRWAY USE IN 1980
June 1, 1974
The demand for air travel between 581 pairs of domestic cities, which comprise 60 percent of total U.S. domestic air travel, is analyzed and forecast to the year 1980. An asessment of operating economies of new wide-body-aircraft and alternative trip times likely to be experienced by future air travelers is made to generate assumptions regarding the structure of future fares and trip times by distance. These assumptions are combined with income and population projections for each city and an estimated demand function to forecast levels of passenger travel between each pair of cities. Airline flights between these pairs of cities are projected under two patterns of service that may evolve with the further introduction of wide-body jets into commercial service. This research contribution is one of several documents produced in support of Project Blue Air: An Analysis of Navy Airspace Usage.
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TIME IN THE BUDGET OF THE CONSUMER, THE THEORY OF CONSUMER DEMAND AND LABOR SUPPLY UNDER A TIME CONSTRAINT
June 1, 1974
This dissertation develops and tests a modification of the standard theory of consumer demand that yields implications concerning the consumer's allocation of time to consumption and income producing activities.
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