Research for Defense Economics

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Future Russian Navy: The Human Factor
December 1, 1992
In this research memorandum, we present the findings of one portion of CNA's Future Russian Navy project, which was requested by the Director of Naval Intelligence. We examine what Russians commonly call 'the human factor' in naval affairs, or the set of issues concerned with attracting and retaining personnel and creating conditions that enable and encourage them to perform their missions. We look at three aspects of the human factor in turn: personnel procurement policy, day-to-day military economics, and the navy's relationship with society and local civilian officials. We discuss how the former Soviet Union traditionally approached each challenge and why the old approaches are failing today. We also describe the way the navy is functioning today, living with the residue of the old system, and adapting to cope with the changed environment. We conclude with an assessment of possible remedies to the Navy's human factor problem, and a discussion of current and prospective trends.
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Four Possible Directions for Economic Reform in Russia: How Will They Constrain the Military?
November 1, 1992
This research memorandum outlines four possible directions for the reform of the Russian economy -- Western-led reform (patterned after an approach to reform prescribed by the International Monetary Fund), Russian-led reform, industry-led reform, and a return to a state-run economy (retrenchment). The paper measures how the military and the defense industries will be affected -- in the short- and the long-term -- by these courses of reform. Finally, the paper outlines the most likely course for the future of the Russian Navy.
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'Awaiting Parts Time' in a Multi-Indenture, Readiness-Based Sparing Model
November 1, 1990
This research memorandum presents a means of calculating the expected length of 'awaiting-parts time' of weapon replaceable assemblies, which are needed to calculate aircraft readiness in a multi-indenture, readiness-based sparing model. The method presented is appropriate for any other level of indenture. Although full scale application of the model is not feasible at this time, the model aids in comparing and evaluating existing models.
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Cost Minimization and Uncertainty in Defense Manufacturing
March 1, 1990
This paper presents a mathematical model for two purposes. First, it extends the theoretical analysis of annual contracting to the more general case of uncertainty as to the magnitude of year-two procurement, as opposed simply to its cancellation. The second is to assign parameter values having at least some empirical grounding to the Utgoff-Thaler model, thereby providing a basis for assessing quantitatively the consequences of the theoretical results for both annual and multiyear contracting.
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Estimation of MPN Obligations
April 1, 1989
This research memorandum describes an analysis of methods that will enable OP-01 to monitor more closely the execution of the Military Personnel Navy (MPN) appropriation. In particular, the analysis is concerned with the identification of leading indicators of MPN obligations that provide accurate forecasts of fiscal year obligations within a few months of the fiscal year's start. The study demonstrates that succinct and accurate estimation techniques may be applied to basic pay, retired pay accrual, basic allowance for quarters, FICA, and officer basic allowance for subsistence. Other pay categories exhibit too much irregularity to be amenable to such forecasting methods. The analysis exhibits the margins of error that apply to the forecasts and are inherent in the Navy's information systems.
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Composition and Trends of Navy Training Costs for Individual Training
June 1, 1987
This research memorandum describes the principal components of the Department of the Navy budget that relate to the conduct of Navy individual training. It defines and describes the content of the budget categories and details the dollar estimates and manpower levels associated with training for FY 1981 through FY 1986. It also explains the organizational responsibilities for the management of training resources as well as the conduct of the specific types of individual training.
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Manpower and Workload Factors that Dominate Navy Individual Training Costs
February 1, 1987
This research memorandum is the final report on a study of the factors that affect the costs of training Navy personnel. It identifies the relationship between students undergoing specialized skill training and the dominant operating costs of conducting that training.
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THE DEFENSE PLANNING, PROGRAMMING, AND BUDGETING SYSTEM (PPBS), PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE, CONFERENCE ON
March 1, 1983
Presents proceedings from a Defense-wide conference on service programming held at CNA.
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IS THE MILITARY BUDGET OUT OF BALANCE?
October 1, 1982
This paper addresses the question of whether it is cheaper to get additional defense capability by buying more forces or by spending more to keep smaller forces working.
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The Economics of Multiyear Contracting
April 1, 1982
This paper analyzes the effects of legislative changes sought by DoD on the price of weapons systems. Budgeting and funding practices are also discussed because these practices play an important role in choosing the best type of contract.
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