Research for Defense Economics

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January 1, 1998
In a previous study, CNA analysts used data from past DoD A-76 competitions to construct a model of savings and projected the potential savings from additional DoD Commercial Activities (CA) competitions. In this paper, we use an alternative approach for estimating savings from future Dod CA competitions. We estimate two separate bidding equations - one for the in-house team bid and another for the minimum contractor bids - along with an equation for baseline cost. Based on these estimated equations, one could then indirectly project future savings in the A-76 inventory as the difference between predicted baseline cost and the predicted winning bid. Using the new approach, we project an annual savings of $6 billion if the entire 1995 DoD CA inventory were competed under A-76 rules.
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December 1, 1997
Given the lack of an immediate threat by a superpower, the pressures to fund nondefense programs, and the desire to shrink the deficit, the military's budget, in real terms, is unlikely to increase. Yet, we must fund modernization efforts and new initiatives, such as 'the Revolution in Military Affairs.' The only source for these funds appears to be the current military infrastructure accounts. Therefore, this paper calls for a 'Revolution in Business Affairs' (RBA) to provide an efficient and flexible infrastructure that supports changing military requirements at a price that does not overwhelm modernization efforts. The RBA will achieve this by changing fundamental DoD business process to those that have worked in the private sector.
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May 1, 1997
CNA prepared this briefing for the Department of the Navy's Rightsourcing Process Action Team, under the auspices of the Total Ownership Cost Goal Management Board of the Assistant Secretary of the Navy (Research, Development, and Acquisition) (ASN(RD&A)). In this briefing, we review the background of the study and our approach, identify those companies and activities that participated in our study, summarize the factors that we found affect rightsourcing decisions, and describe our key findings.
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June 1, 1995
With extensive literature on the treatment of uncertainty in cost estimates, and because several uncertainty software packages are now available, the Naval Center for Cost Analysis asked the Center for Naval Analyses to conduct a study with the objective of evaluating the procedures and software that it now employs. This report begins with a discussion of introductory analytical issues and then focuses on the software packages that were evaluated. Additional analytical questions are addressed in connection with those evaluations.
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May 1, 1994
N1's Sponsor Program Proposal of 12 April 1994 recommended paying sailors to stay in sea duty beyond five years. In this briefing, we analyze that proposal as well as a modified proposal that we present as an alternative. Our modified proposal offers two fine-tuning changes to what we believe is a good and workable original proposal by N1. We think of these proposal as experiments because until such a program is instituted, we have no estimates of how many sailors would extend their sea duty in exchange for a bonus. Thus, the early stages of any such program would be experimental in nature.
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April 1, 1994
In this report, we examine the question of where the Navy's depot maintenance should be done. In FY 1992, the Department of the Navy spent $7.5 billion on depot maintenance, and most of that work was done at naval depots. Now that the workload is declining, however, the Department of the Navy and the Department of Defense are looking at the possibility of doing more of that work at private facilities.
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December 1, 1993
Some activities performed by government employees are similar to those performed in the private sector. Government policy -- outlined in Office of Management Budget circular A-76 -- is to allow private sector companies to compete with government organizations for this work. The goal is to use competition to encourage efficiency -- whether the function is contracted out or not. The Navy's Commercial Activities (CA) program is responsible for implementing this competition program within the Navy. Over the last decade, the Navy has studied about 1,000 activities -- covering about 29,000 billets (both civilian and military). Due to changes in legislation, the Navy is not doing any CA studies at this time. In this research memorandum, we examine: (a) the savings achieved as a result of CA studies; (b) whether the initial savings diminished over time; and (c) the prospect for future studies. Full documentation of this work appears in CRM 92-226.10, 'Analysis of the Navy's Commercial Activities Program.'
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July 1, 1993
Some activities performed by government employees are similar to those performed in the private sector. Government policy -- outlined in Office of Management Budget circular A-76 -- is to allow private sector companies to compete with government organizations for this work. The goal is to use competition to encourage efficiency -- whether the function is contracted out or not. The Navy's Commercial Activities (CA) program is responsible for implementing this competition program within the Navy. Over the last decade, the Navy has studied about 1,000 activities -- covering about 29,000 billets (both civilian and military). Due to changes in legislation, the Navy is not doing any CA studies at this time. In this research memorandum, we examine: (a) the savings achieved as a result of CA studies; (b) whether the initial savings diminished over time; and (c) the prospect for future studies.
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April 1, 1993
The Gulf War was an impressive demonstration of air power in action. Coalition air forces seized control of the air in the first hours, then devastated military facilities in Iraq and Iraqi forces in the field -- paving the way for the remarkable 100-hour victory by coalition ground forces. Airpower did not win the war by itself, but it was the foundation for projecting U.S. military power and overcoming numerical disadvantages on the ground. Airpower is likely to play a similar key role in the next major regional conflict. Thus, the U.S. must maintain its superiority in airpower despite rising costs and declining budgets. The issues are complex and controversial, but ignoring issues will not make them go away. This paper discusses policy and concept issues that need debate and examines two broad strategies for dealing with affordability problems.
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February 1, 1993
In April 1991, the Director of Naval Intelligence asked CNA to undertake a formal study that would define the character of the future Soviet or Russian Navy. In July 1991, we launched the Future Russian Navy project. This annotated briefing provides an overview of the study's findings. It summarizes the research memoranda that document the elements of the project, and reports on the overall findings in anticipation of the study's final report.
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