Research for Decision Theory

This analysis develops a methodology for comparing forecasting models and examines in detail the ability of available attrition/ success models to adequately predict the service performance of nongraduate Marines. Available models will almost always select graduates over nongraduates; therefore, it is possible that these models cannot optimally select from among the remaining non-graduates - some of whom the Marine Corps will be forced to accept. The data was disaggregated and the attrition of graduates and nongraduates was examined separately. The results of this analysis indicate that using a separate attrition/success model developed especially for non-graduates will not significantly improve the accuracy and reliability of prediction. The conclusion, therefore, is that existing models, which deal with an aggregated population, are both appropriate and sufficient.

This paper provides mathematical models for the problems of maximizing the probability of successfully obtaining a target amount (either as a burglar or as a quiz show contestant) and of maximizing expected fortune.

This paper analyzes the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Gulf of Tonkin Incident. A crisis decision model is presented to explain the sequential behavior in these cases.

This paper describes a method for determining optimal repair and replacement policies for aircraft, with specific reference to the F-4. The objective of the analysis is to choose the set of policies from all possible alternatives over a finite planning horizon which minimizes the cost of operations. A dynamic program is presented which seeks an optimal path through a series of decision periods, when each period begins with the choice of keeping an aircraft, reworking it before further operation, or buying a new one.