Research for CRM

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October 1, 1986
The generalization from hands-on test scores to performance in a military occupation specialty can be threatened by many potential sources of error within the measurement process. Such sources of error can include scoring inconsistencies by test administrators, testing over a long period, and diverse test content. This analysis estimates the influence of these factors on the hands-on scores for three Marine Corps specialties. Estimates of test reliability are discussed in light of the effect the measurement factors on the hands-on scores. Research designs to assess specific issues of reliability are proposed for the full-scale administration of hands-on tests to the Infantry occupational field.
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October 1, 1986
Using the Navy's 4855 data, estimates of selected combat systems' availability rates are computed and the effect on reliability of turning the systems on and off is determined by analyzing the system's history of being on, off, and broken. Two models are used that describe the time until failure when a system is in either a 'secure' or an 'up' state.
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October 1, 1986
This reader supplements other CNA papers about the future directions in the Western Alliance, by presenting the Soviet perspective on developments in Britain. Particular attention is given to recent Soviet writings on the United Kingdom, especially: its security aspirations, policies and debates, its roles in international affairs and arms control; its military forces; and its domestic politics.
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September 1, 1986
A plausible Soviet approach to the problem of securing control of the Arctic Ocean Theater of Military Operations (TVD) during a war fought entirely with conventional weapons is laid out in this research memorandum. The focus is primarily on the strategic aspects of the problem. Those aspects of the Soviet solution which may appear unorthodox, but which effectively compensate for some of the Soviet Navy's main weaknesses are highlighted.
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September 1, 1986
New scales for Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) forms 11, 12, and 13 have been implemented. This research memorandum describes the impact of this adjusted scaling on scores for FY 1985 Marine Corps applicants. In addition, the initial and adjusted scalings for each ASVAB subtest are compared.
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September 1, 1986
This research memorandum is intended to serve as a guide to using data to analyze Navy civilian manpower. It describes the construction and analysis of data sets used to compare the supply and demand for civilian employees of the Navy in peacetime and in mobilization. It then provides data sets used to alter the primary data tapes employed and codebooks for the tapes and their revisions. It also provides definitions of terms used in the study.
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September 1, 1986
In January 1977, General Secretary L.I. Brezhnev delivered an address in the city of Tula whose impact on Soviet doctrine and capabilities continues to this day. By rejecting the possibility of a means of defense against nuclear weapons, or a damage-limiting capacity in nuclear war, Brezhnev closed the door on a debate that had lasted over a decade in Soviet military thought. Since Tula, the Soviet politico-military leadership has presented a consensus on the reality of 'Mutual Assured Destruction' in present-day conditions. The Soviet debate on the viability of nuclear war as an instrument of policy was likewise resolved by a consensus: nuclear war is so unpromising and dangerous that it remains an instrument of policy only in theory, an instrument of policy that cannot be used. While the Soviet consensus on the diminishing military utility of nuclear weapons represents a ground-breaking shift in doctrine since the heyday of Marshal Solokovskiy, there is scant evidence of any dispute on the new correlation of war and policy in a nuclear age. Marshal N.V. Ogarkov and other hard-minded military figures have themselves emerged as the architects of the Soviet shift away from a nuclear war-fighting and war-winning strategy, while General Secretary Gorbachev has fashioned a corresponding arms control agenda.
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September 1, 1986
A model for predicting Marine enlisted dependency rates by pay grade is developed in this memorandum. It estimates the effects of economic and demographic factors and provides monthly forecasts through fiscal year 1990.
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September 1, 1986
The Rand Corporation has developed a model to determine cost-effective qualification standards for military occupational specialties. Since this model may potentially have an impact on enlistment policy, it is important to fully understand its assumptions and procedures. The research memorandum examines key elements of the model, discusses the impact they have on the outcome of the model, and identifies issues that might benefit from further analysis.
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September 1, 1986
This research memorandum examines the effects of three factors on attrition from the Navy within two and six months of shipping for recruits who entered in FY 1985. These three factors are participation in the Delayed Entry Program (DEP), month of shipment, and enlistment program. The results indicate that DEP recruits have lower attrition than direct shippers, that attrition among direct shippers is higher in months with high accession rates, and that attrition rates vary by enlistment program.
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