Research for CRM

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December 1, 1986
This paper analyzes the factors that may influence the decision of first-term enlisted Navy veterans to join the Selected Reserve. A model of the determinants of affiliation is developed and estimated using data on active Navy separations and Reserve accessions from 1979 to 1985. Unique features of the model and estimation are that they combine all forms of pay into one variable, incorporate demand constraints, adjust for simultaneity between bonus eligibility and affiliation rates, and use a more comprehensive data set than has been available before. Affiliation is found to depend on Reserve pay, unemployment rates, geographic area, race, sex, paygrade, and Navy rating.
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December 1, 1986
A study of several related issues in the Navy's military construction and Base Operating Support (BOS) programs is documented in this research memorandum. Construction related topics include: 1) changes in the stock of capital facilities over time; 2) the role of, and need for, replacement/modernization construction; 3) economic evaluation of proposed captial investments; and 4) training in economic analysis for Navy facility planners and engineers. As for BOS, the feasibility of full-scale development of quantitative measures of performance as a basis for improving the allocation of resources to these activities was examined; results indicated that such development was not feasible. The alternavtive of macro-level statistical modeling appears to offer considerably greater promise.
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December 1, 1986
This paper discusses Soviet political responses to TRIDENT and the TOMAHAWK nuclear land-attack missile. Soviet strategy in arms control is reviewed and attention placed on linkage of U.S. strategic offensive forces to the Strategic Defense Initiative. Possible Soviet responses to U.S. proposals are explored.
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December 1, 1986
Different copies of a repairable machine, or units, may exhibit different failure rates. If this heterogeneity is ignored, a statistical model of the time until failure may reveal a spurious decreasing hazard rate. Such a model results in incorrect inferences concerning the risk following repair. This paper develops a statistical model that accommodates both heterogeneity across units and decreasing hazard rates. The model is best suited for a fairly large number of units with relatively few failures apiece. The times to failure for each unit are assumed to be Weibull, and the Weibull scale parameter is allowed to vary randomly across units under a Gamma distribution. The model is illustrated using data on U.S. Navy radars.
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December 1, 1986
The Claritas data set was created in the summer of 1985 and contains all the zip codes within 100 miles of 426 Reserve centers. This paper describes the data set and contents, and explains specific uses of the file.
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November 1, 1986
The Accelerated Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT) - Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) Project (ACAP) may serve as the pilot version for national implementation of CAT for the ASVAB. Two major decisions in the ACAP involve the introduction of new items into the tests, and setting time limits. This research memorandum takes the position that the long-term benefits which CAT may provide are more important than purely technical concerns and makes recommendations based on this position.
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November 1, 1986
Describes the various deployment options developed by the Marine Corps over the past decade. The report begins with a brief discussion of the history, mission, and organization of the Marine Corps. Then, after describing the methods of deployment, it examines the effect the deployment techniques have had on the way the Marine Corps employs its forces in peacetime.
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November 1, 1986
The results of exploratory research on models and techniques used in estimating the effects of competition as well as several other variables in weapon system production contract prices are reported. The purpose of this effort was to examine the use of pooled cross-section, time-series data in modeling the acquisition program and its environment. The approach is not tied specifically to competitive acquisitions; however, the primary aim of the research was to examine models used to estimate the effects of competition.
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November 1, 1986
Reviews Marshal N.V. Ogarkov's writings from 1977 to 1985 which reveal that Ogarkov has long been the prophet of what General William Odom has dubbed the 'third revolution' in Soviet military affairs. Ogarkov's recurrent message encapsulates the changes in Soviet doctrine and capabilities that constitute the new revolution: the diminishing military utility of nuclear weapons and new combat characteristics of conventional means require that the forms and methods of combat action be adapted accordingly. Like Ogarkov, most prominent Soviet military figures have concluded that nonnuclear weapons outfitted with emerging technologies will furnish conventional solutions to nuclear problems in a future war. But Ogarkov's 1985 theater operation may well be the first official acknowledgement of the new, all-conventional dimension in Soviet strategy for a war on the European continent.
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November 1, 1986
The Numerical Operation (NO) subtest, used in the Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT), has a history of causing problems for the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) score scale. Two adjustments to the ASVAB score scale have been required since NO was made part of the AFQT in 1980. The purpose of this report is to present evidence that the NO subtest should be deleted from the AFQT and be replaced by the Math Knowledge (MK) subtest. Data are presented showing that the AFQT scores in 1984 were inflated by approximately three percentile score points.
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